碳中和目标下中国海洋渔业碳汇能力及其空间效应研究  

Study on the Carbon Sink Capacity of Chinese Marine Fisheries and Its Spatial Effects under the Carbon Neutrality Target

作　　者：郑鹏 赵丽男 贾文静 王韵霖 ZHENG Peng;ZHAO Linan;JIA Wenjing;WANG Yunlin(School of Economics and Management,Dalian Ocean University,Dalian Liaoning 116023,China)

机构地区：[1]大连海洋大学经济管理学院,辽宁大连116023

出　　处：《生态经济》2024年第5期118-123,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：辽宁省教育厅高等学校基本科研项目“碳中和目标下中国海洋渔业绿色发展评价体系研究”(LJKR0259)。

摘　　要：全球变暖问题日益引起国际社会的广泛关注,而实现碳中和目标的重要路径之一就是海洋渔业的固碳增汇能力,因此如何科学准确地测算海洋渔业碳汇能力并研究其空间效应对缓解全球气候变化尤为重要。论文根据2007—2021年中国9个沿海省份贝藻养殖面板数据,利用“可移出碳汇”模型对中国海洋渔业碳汇能力进行测算,并运用空间模型对其空间效应进行分析。研究结果显示:(1)中国海洋渔业碳汇能力时间上呈现整体上升态势、空间上表现分布不均的特征。(2)莫兰指数表明海洋渔业碳汇能力具有空间正相关性,但空间聚集程度具有不稳定性。(3)通过空间杜宾模型分解后得出海洋渔业养殖产量、科技投入、科技推广情况和渔业灾情直接效应为正,劳动力投入直接效应为负。从间接效应来看,海洋渔业发展水平、养殖产量、科技投入和科技推广情况间接效应为正,劳动力投入间接效应为负。因此,应综合考虑海洋渔业碳汇能力的空间关联性,为今后海洋渔业的发展制定科学合理的空间规划。Global warming is a growing concern for the international community,and one of the important paths to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality is the carbon sequestration and sink capacity of marine fisheries.Therefore,it is particularly important to measure the carbon sink capacity of marine fisheries scientifically and accurately and study its spatial effects to mitigate global climate change.Based on the panel data of shellfish culture in 9 coastal provinces of China from 2007 to 2021,this paper uses the“removable carbon sink”model to estimate the carbon sink capacity of marine fishery in China,and uses the spatial model to analyze its spatial effects.The results show that:(1)China’s marine fisheries carbon sink capacity shows an overall increase in time and an uneven distribution in space.(2)Moran’s I indicates that the carbon sink capacity of marine fisheries has a positive spatial correlation,but the degree of spatial aggregation is unstable.(3)The decomposition of the spatial Durbin model resulted in a positive direct effect of marine fisheries aquaculture production,science and technology input,science and technology promotion situation and fishery disaster,and a negative direct effect of labor input.In terms of indirect effects,the indirect effects of the level of development of marine fisheries,aquaculture production,science and technology input and science and technology promotion situation are positive,and the indirect effects of labor input are negative.Therefore,the spatial correlation of the carbon sink capacity of marine fisheries should be considered comprehensively,and a scientific and reasonable spatial planning should be formulated for the future development of marine fisheries.

关 键 词：碳中和 海洋渔业 碳汇能力 空间效应 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学] F307.4