基于Budyko假设的三峡库区蓄水前后径流变化归因识别  

Attribution Identification of Runoff Change Before and After Impoundment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on Budyko Hypothesis

作　　者：陈蒙恩 魏兴 周育琳 史瑞博 李伊能 CHEN Meng’en;WEI Xing;ZHOU Yulin;SHI Ruibo;LI Yineng(School of Civil Engineering,Chongqing Three Gorges University,Chongqing 404100,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆三峡学院土木工程学院,重庆404100

出　　处：《水土保持学报》2024年第2期76-84,245,共10页Journal of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：重庆市自然科学基金项目(CSTB2022NSCQ-MSX1392);重庆市教委科学技术研究项目(KJQN202201210,KJQN202201224,KJQN202101235,KJQN202301209);重庆市万州区科技创新项目(wzstc20230313)。

摘　　要：[目的]径流在气候变化和人类活动的共同影响下发生变化,探索径流时空演变规律及其原因对水库科学调度及水资源的可持续利用具有重要指导意义。[方法]基于三峡库区“腹心”万州段1960-2019年的气象水文数据,首先采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Pettitt突变分析和小波分析对三峡库区蓄水前后径流的时空演变特征进行分析,最后采用2种Budyko水热耦合平衡方程,定量计算气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的影响率。[结果](1)研究区年径流量呈显著下降趋势(|z|>2.58),2003年(三峡库区蓄水年)出现拐点,随后年内分配更加均匀。(2)与蓄水前相比较,蓄水后气候变化和人类活动对研究区年径流减少的贡献率为27.9%~29.2%和70.8%~72.1%。(3)人类活动主要通过改变土地利用类型和建设水利工程影响流域年径流量,林地、建设用地面积的增加和三峡库区的建设影响研究区水文循环过程使年径流量减少。[结论]研究结果定量描述人类活动对径流变化的影响,对下一阶段三峡库区水资源管理提供理论支撑。[Objective]Runoff changes under the combined influence of climate change and human activities.Exploring the temporal and spatial evolution of runoff and its causes has important guiding significance for the scientific operation of reservoirs and the sustainable use of water resources.[Methods]Based on the meteorological and hydrological data of the Wanzhou section of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area from 1960 to 2019,Mann-Kendall trend test,Pettitt mutation analysis and wavelet analysis were used to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of runoff before and after the impoundment in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.Finally,two Budyko hydrothermal coupling equilibrium equations were used to quantitatively calculate the influence rate of climate change and human activities on runoff change.[Results](1)The annual runoff in the study area showed a significant downward trend(|z|>2.58),with the inflection point appearing in 2003(the impoundment year of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area),after which the annual distribution was more uniform.(2)Compared to the period before impoundment,the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to the reduction of annual runoff in the study area after impoundment were 27.9%to 29.2%and 70.8%to 72.1%,respectively.(3)Human activities primarily influence the annual runoff of the basin by altering the type of land use and the construction of water conservation projects.[Conclusion]This study quantitatively describes the impact of human activities on runoff changes,and provides the oretical support for the next stage of water resources management in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area.

关 键 词：三峡库区万州段 气候变化 人类活动 时空演变 归因分析 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]