RCEP关税减让对中日双边贸易的影响--基于动态递归GTAP模型的模拟分析  

The impact of RCEP tariff reduction on bilateral trade between China and Japan——Simulation analysis based on dynamic recursive GTAP model

作　　者：廖东声 李曌坤 庄定鹏 LIAO Dong-sheng;LI Zhao-kun;ZHUANG Ding-peng(College of International Education,Guangxi Minzu University,Nanning,Guangxi 530006;School of Economics,Guangxi Minzu University,Nanning,Guangxi 530008)

机构地区：[1]广西民族大学国际教育学院,广西南宁530006 [2]广西民族大学经济学院,广西南宁530008

出　　处：《价格月刊》2024年第4期80-87,共8页

基　　金：陆海经济一体化协同创新中心2022年度科研项目“西部陆海新通道产业低碳化集聚机制研究”(编号:2022ZD02);广西教育科学“十四五”规划2023年度资助经费重点课题(A类)“广西高校中外合作办学教育质量提升研究”(编号:2023A020);国家社科基金项目“数字赋能西南边境地区返乡创业帮扶机制构建与实现路径研究”(编号:22XJY003)。

摘　　要：RCEP的生效为中日双边贸易带来新的机遇和挑战。根据2013—2022年SITC分类下的产品贸易数据,对中日双边贸易发展现状和贸易结构特征进行了深入分析,并运用动态递归GTAP模型模拟分析RCEP关税减让对双边贸易的影响。结果表明:中日双边贸易在样本期间呈波动增长态势,导致贸易逆差波动变化;两国贸易结构主要集中在机械和运输设备以及杂项制品,表明两国在制造业和技术领域存在相互依存关系;贸易结构特征显示,中日双边贸易互补性大于竞争性,且以产业内贸易为主,比较优势主要体现在劳动密集型和资本密集型产品上。GTAP模型分析结果表明,RCEP的生效推动了中日贸易额增长,对两国宏观经济和社会福利产生显著影响;尽管中国在经济效应上的增幅较小,但中国对外贸易潜力更多体现在与其有更大贸易互补性的其他贸易成员国。The implementation of RCEP brings new opportunities and challenges to bilateral trade between China and Japan.Based on the product trade data under the SITC classification from 2013 to 2022,this paper makes an in-depth analysis of the current development status and structure characteristics of bilateral trade between China and Japan,and uses the dynamic recursive GTAP model to simulate and analyze the impact of RCEP tariff re‐ductions on bilateral trade.The results show that the bilateral trade between China and Japan fluctuates during the sample period,leading to fluctuations in the trade deficit;The trade structure between the two countries mainly focuses on machinery,transportation equipment,and miscellaneous products,indicating the interdependence be‐tween the two countries in the fields of manufacturing and technology;The characteristics of trade structure show that the complementarity of bilateral trade between China and Japan is greater than competitiveness,and is domi‐nated by intra-industry trade,and the comparative advantage is mainly reflected in labor-intensive and capital-intensive products.The results of GTAP model analysis show that the implementation of RCEP has promoted the growth of trade volume between China and Japan,and has a significant impact on the macroeconomic and social welfare of both countries;Although China’s economic growth is relatively small,its foreign trade potential is more reflected in other trading member countries that have greater trade complementarity with it.

关 键 词：RCEP 中日双边贸易 GTAP模型 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]