基于山区中小河流水文资料的洪水预测研究——以贵州省威宁县为例  

Flood Prediction Based on Hydrological Data of Small and Medium-Sized Rivers in Mountainous Areas——Taking Weining County,Guizhou Province as an example

作　　者：马祥 MA Xiang(Weining County Water Authority,Weining 553100,Guizhou,China)

机构地区：[1]威宁县水务局,贵州威宁553100

出　　处：《水利科技与经济》2024年第4期18-22,共5页Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy

摘　　要：以威宁县兴隆河流域为例,通过对当地气象和水文现状的分析,构建用于山区中小河流洪涝灾害预警的水文径流量预测模型,同时采用遗传算法对模型进行优化。在试验中,采用威宁县兴隆河2022年9月11日的流域气象水文数据进行分析对比。结果显示,研究提出的优化模型在24h内河流径流量预测数据的平均误差为0.4361m^(3)/s,误差小于其他算法模型,表明该方法在洪涝灾害预警中的有效价值。Taking the Xinglong river basin in Weining county as an example,through the analysis of the local meteorological and hydrological situation,built a hydrological runoff prediction model for flood disaster warning of small and medium-sized rivers in mountainous areas,and optimized the model using genetic algorithm.In the experiment,the basin meteorological and hydrological data of Xinglong river in Weining county on September 11,2022 were used for analysis and comparison.The results showed that the average error of the optimized model proposed in the study was 0.4361 m^(3)/s,which was smaller than other algorithm models.The experiment proves the effective value of this method in flood disaster early warning.

关 键 词：山洪灾害 中小河流 水文模型 遗传算法 威宁县 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]