中国区域人口收缩对经济增长的影响及形成机理  

Effects of regional population shrinkage on economic growth and the underlying mechanism

作　　者：刘振[1,2] 李伟 刘盛和[1,2] LIU Zhen;LIWei;LIU Shenghe(Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;School of Geography,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China;Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application,Nanjing 210023,China;International Research Center of Big Data for Sustainable Development Goals,Beijing 100094,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049 [3]南京师范大学地理科学学院,南京210023 [4]江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,南京210023 [5]可持续发展大数据国际研究中心,北京100094

出　　处：《地理研究》2024年第4期949-965,共17页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42001166、42271246)。

摘　　要：近年来中国区域尺度的人口收缩不断蔓延,然而区域人口收缩对经济发展会产生怎样的影响尚缺乏探讨。利用1990—2020年4个普查时点地级尺度的人口普查数据,分析地级单元常住人口变化,识别人口收缩区,建立人口收缩经济效应测度模型,分析人口收缩对经济增长的影响及其空间分异特征,并探讨人口收缩经济效应的形成机理。研究发现:(1) 1990—2020年,人口收缩区呈快速扩张趋势,2020年人口收缩的地级单元占比已超过40%。(2)研究时期内,人口收缩并未对区域经济增长产生负向影响,反而能够促进区域人均产出水平的提高。(3)人口收缩对区域经济增长的影响存在一定的空间分异,东部和中西部地区人口收缩能够促进经济增长,但东北地区不显著。(4)在解释机理上,这主要与现阶段绝大多数人口收缩区以农村人口外流引起的收缩为主,而城镇人口仍保持增长这一特征密切相关;东北地区城镇人口收缩持续蔓延,是东北地区与其它地区人口收缩经济效应存在差异的重要原因。建议避免单纯从负面角度看待区域常住人口收缩现象,但必须重视城镇人口收缩区域的经济可持续发展问题。In recent years,the phenomenon of population shrinkage has been observed at the regional level.However,the key issue of whether population shrinkage affects regional economic development is still lacking discussion.This study uses the fourth(1990),fifth(2000),sixth(2010),and seventh(2020)population census data in China at the prefecture level,and employs the change of total resident population as the index to identify population shrinkage areas.Subsequently,a population-economic growth model is established to analyze the impacts of population shrinkage on regional economic growth and the possible spatial differentiation characteristics,as well as to discuss the underlying mechanisms.The main findings of this study are as follows:Firstly,population shrinkage areas rapidly expanded from 1990 to 2020,forming large-scale concentration areas in the central and western regions and the northeast region,and the eastern region has also shown a characteristic of local centralized distribution,such as the northern part of Jiangsu province.Secondly,the empirical models show that population shrinkage did not produced a negative impact on regional economic growth during the research period.Instead,it promoted the improvement of the per capita output level.Thirdly,there were spatial differences in the impacts of population shrinkage on regional economic development.Population shrinkage has a significant positive impact on regional economic growth in the eastern and central-western regions,while population shrinkage has insignificant impacts on regional economic growth in the northeast region.Fourthly,in terms of the underlying mechanisms,population shrinkage in most areas is mainly caused by rural population outflow,while the urban population still maintains rapid growth.Given urban areas are the core of regional economic development,population shrinkage may not cause the problems of insufficient regional labor supply and low growth of human capital.Instead,the decline of rural surplus labor can help improve labor productivity.

关 键 词：人口收缩 人口迁移 经济效应 城镇化 中国 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] C924.2[社会学—人口学]