基于灾害风险理论的湖北水稻高温热害风险分析及区划  

Analysis and Regionalization of Rice High-Temperature Harm Risk in Hubei Province Based on Disaster Risk Theory

作　　者：李世刚 王东仙 刘可群[2] 刘志雄[2] LI Shigang;WANG Dongxian;LIU Kequn;LIU Zhixiong(Jingmen Municipal Meteorological Service,Hubei,Jingmen 448124;Wuhan Regional Climate Center,Wuhan 430074)

机构地区：[1]湖北荆门市气象局,荆门448124 [2]武汉区域气候中心,武汉430074

出　　处：《气象科技》2024年第2期288-296,共9页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：中国人保财险湖北省分公司委托项目(20160921CI000001)资助。

摘　　要：高温热害是长江流域最主要的气象灾害之一,科学评估热害风险是防灾减灾的基础。本文利用近60年气象观测资料,对湖北高温热害的时空分布特征进行了分析;基于自然灾害风险基本理论,建立了包括影响水稻结实率关键期的热害强度、灾害发生时承灾体实际暴露度、灾害脆弱性等因素的高温热害风险评价模型,并进行了风险分析与区划。结果表明:高温天气出现概率高的时段是7月下旬,其中7月第6候为最高。从高温热害风险指数上来看,7月第3候抽穗开花水稻的热害风险最高,此后随时间的推移,热害风险降低;湖北现行的一季中稻抽穗开花期处于风险较高的时段,推迟5天其热害风险指数可下降20%左右;推迟15天以上热害风险指数将降低50%以上。江汉平原稻区是湖北高温热害风险低发地区,鄂东南及鄂西北地区是热害风险高发地区;针对各区热害特点提出了风险应对措施。High-temperature heat damage is one of the main meteorological disasters in the Yangtze River Basin,and scientific assessment of heat damage risk is the basis for disaster prevention and reduction.This study is utilising meteorological observation data from the past 60 years to analyse the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of high-temperature heat damage in Hubei.Based on the basic theory of natural disaster risk,a high-temperature heat damage risk assessment model is established,which includes factors such as the heat damage intensity that affects the critical period of rice seed setting rate,the actual exposure of the disaster bearing body during the disaster occurrence,and the vulnerability of the disaster.Risk analysis and zoning are conducted.The results show that the period with a high probability of high-temperature weather occurrence is late July,with the 6th pentad in July being the highest.From the perspective of the high-temperature heat damage risk index,the heat damage risk of rice heading and flowering in the third pentad of July is the highest,and thereafter,the heat damage risk decreases over time.The current heading and flowering period of one season mid season rice in Hubei is at a high-risk period,and delaying it for 5 days can reduce its heat damage risk index by about 20%;delaying for more than 15 days reduces the heat hazard risk index by more than 50%.The southeastern and northwestern regions of Hubei are high-risk areas for high-temperature heat damage.For the southeastern region of Hubei,it is recommended to postpone the sowing period by about 15 days or choose more heat-resistant varietals to reduce the impact of high-temperature heat damage.Heat resistant varieties should be selected in the northwest of Hubei to reduce the risk of high-temperature and heat damage,and it is not advisable to postpone the sowing date to avoid the impact of autumn rain in western China on the rice harvest period.Due to the inferior water resource conditions compared to the Jianghan Plain in northe

关 键 词：水稻 高温热害 风险分析 区划 

分 类 号：S162[农业科学—农业气象学]