城市轨道交通土地溢价差异的影响因素——元分析回归的视角  

Influencing factors of differences in land premiums ofurban rail transit:A meta-analysis regression perspective

作　　者：林雄斌[1,2,3] 牛步青 潘琦 詹双芬 马仁锋 LIN Xiong-bin;NIU Bu-qing;PAN Qi;ZHAN Shuang-fen;MA Ren-feng(Department of Geography and Spatial Information Technology,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,Zhejiang,China;Zhejiang Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center for Land and Marine SpatialUtilization and Governance,Ningbo 315211,Zhejiang,China;Donghai Academy,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]宁波大学地理与空间信息技术系,宁波315211 [2]浙江省陆海国土空间利用与治理协同创新中心,宁波315211 [3]宁波大学东海研究院,宁波315211

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2024年第4期960-977,共18页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42001174,42271201);浙江省哲学社会科学规划课题重点项目(23NDJC015Z);宁波市青年科技创新领军人才项目(2023QL016)。

摘　　要：在交通强国战略下,各地积极推动城市轨道交通建设及沿线土地开发,产生了显著的社会经济效应。针对城市轨道交通溢价效应差异化结果,基于元分析回归方法,从情景因素与方法论因素两个方面解析差异化结果及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)城市轨道交通能通过交通模式替代、土地开发演化等效应,产生一定的土地溢价。(2)基于不同的情景因素与方法论因素,如评估对象选择、轨道成熟度、可达性等情景因素以及不同实证研究方法,会显著影响轨道交通溢价的评估结果。相比特征价格模型,多时期价格变化对比和局部线性回归测算结果相对较高,而双重差分模型较低。(3)轨道交通溢价效应具有动态复杂性。鉴于轨道交通的经济和社会效应,可构建溢价捕获等机制保障交通服务的可持续、均等化与可及性。Under the strategy of accelerating the effort to build China into a country with astrong transport industry,local governments have actively carried out urban rail transitconstruction and promoted transit-oriented development(TOD)within the transit-serving areas,which has gradually generated significant social and economic effects.Indeed,urban China hasissued a series of national or regional planning outlines and policies to promote the high-qualitydevelopment of urban rail transit infrastructure and the associated land-use planning.Currently,to what extent urban rail transit can produce a land premium effect still remains controversial,which is significantly affected by contextual factors and research design.For the differentiationresults of the premium effect in urban rail transit,a sample of 298 observations from 44published journal articles was investigated by using a meta-analysis regression approach,andthe influencing factors of differentiation results were discussed from two aspects:contextualfactors and research design.The results of the meta-analysis regressions would be helpful topromote both economic development and social equity.The findings show that:(1)Urban railtransit can produce a certain land premium effect based on the transport mode substitution andland development evolution effects,but the rail transit premium effect presents significantlydifferentiated results based on different contextual factors and research design.(2)Contextualfactors such as assessment objectives,rail transit maturity,and accessibility features are majorfactors influencing rail transit and land premium connections;different methodologies adoptedwill also influence rail transit premium evaluation results.Compared to the hedonic pricingmodel,the premium impact evaluated by the multi-period price change and local linearregression methods presents a higher result,while the difference-in-difference model has alower result.(3)The premium effect of rail transit has dynamic complexity.Concerning theeconomic and social impact of u

关 键 词：城市轨道交通 土地溢价效应 溢价捕获 元分析回归 

分 类 号：F572[经济管理—产业经济]