SPS措施对我国中药产品出口持续时间的影响  

Effects of SPS Measures on the Duration of Chinese Traditional Herbal Medicine Exports

作　　者：刘仪 汪晶晶 LIU Yi;WANG Jingjing(Horgos Business School,Yili Normal University,Yining,Xinjiang 835000;College of Economics and Management,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830052)

机构地区：[1]伊犁师范大学霍尔果斯商学院,新疆伊宁835000 [2]新疆农业大学经济管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《北方园艺》2024年第7期146-153,共8页Northern Horticulture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(72003163)。

摘　　要：SPS措施逐渐成为阻碍中国中药产品出口的重要障碍,如何在SPS时代保证出口的持续性是该产业面临的重要问题。该研究利用2002—2020年中国中药产品出口贸易数据,运用K-M生存分析法探明中药产品出口持续时间的分布特征,构建离散时间模型分析SPS措施对中药产品出口持续时间的影响。结果表明:我国中药产品出口持续时间普遍较短,中位数为2年,且出口持续时间存在负时间依存性,存在“门槛效应”。贸易伙伴提出的SPS通报将显著增加中药产品出口贸易的失败风险率,已出口贸易段对风险率具有负效应。最后就延长我国中药产品出口贸易持续时间提出相应的对策建议。SPS measures have gradually become an important obstacle to the export of Chinese traditional herbal medicine products.How to ensure the sustainability of exports in the SPS era is an important issue facing the industry.Based on the export trade data of Chinese traditional herbal medicine products from 2002 to 2020,K-M survival analysis was used to investigate the distribution characteristics of export duration of Chinese traditional herbal medicine products,and a discrete time model was established to analyze the impact of SPS measures on export duration of Chinese traditional herbal medicine products.The results showed that the export duration of Chinese traditional herbal medicine products was generally short,the median was 2 years,and the export duration had negative time dependence,there was a‘threshold effect’.The SPS notification proposed by trading partners would significantly increase the risk of failure in the export trade of Chinese traditional herbal medicine products,and the export trade segment had a negative effect on the risk rate.Finally,some countermeasures and suggestions were put forward to extend the duration of Chinese traditional herbal medicine export trade.

关 键 词：中药产品 SPS措施 出口持续时间 生存分析法 离散时间模型 

分 类 号：R286[医药卫生—中药学]