生育支持的政策瞄准--基于“初婚-生育孩次”递进模型的发现  

Targeting Fertility Support Policy in China:Insights from the Marriage-and-Parity-Progression Analysis

作　　者：任正委 包芊颖 张兴文 邱锐鹏 Ren Zhengwei;Bao Qianying;Zhang Xingwen;Qiu Ruipeng

机构地区：[1]浙江理工大学人口与家庭发展研究所、浙江省城市治理研究中心 [2]之江实验室智能社会治理实验室 [3]香港理工大学理学院,中国

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2024年第2期35-50,共16页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：浙江省软科学研究项目“基于人口大数据和智能仿真的育儿补贴政策优化设计研究”(编号:2024C35010)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：国际经验表明,政策瞄准偏差是鼓励生育的家庭政策未能取得预期效果的主要原因之一。文章基于社会政策瞄准的分析框架,运用“初婚-生育孩次”递进模型和生育率弹性系数对中国生育支持政策进行瞄准分析;并以K省为例,深入剖析“初婚-生育孩次”递进率对总和生育率的影响及其社会阶层差异。研究发现:(1)现阶段20~29岁女性的初婚递进率对总体生育水平起主导性作用;(2)20~34岁女性的一孩递进生育率对生育水平的影响大于二孩及多孩递进生育率;(3)女性初婚和生育进度在不同社会阶层呈现分化趋势。当前中国各地的政策瞄准过度关注婚育进程的后端,存在瞄准偏差和低效问题。生育支持政策的重心应适当前移,瞄准对青年群体初婚和一孩生育的支持,重视对20~34岁不同社会经济特征的育龄人群提供针对性的政策支持。Policy targeting bias has been identified as one of the main reasons for the failure of pronatalist policies to achieve expected outcome.This study uses the Marriage-and-Parity-Progression Analysis Model,which calculates the age specific rates of first marriage and parity progression(ASMRs and APSFRs)and the age-specific fertility elasticities of different groups,to identify the key target groups with higher fertility elasticities.The study finds that the ASMRs and APSFRs for parity one of young women are the foundation for a moderate TFR,and marriage rates play a dominant role in determining female's fertility trajectory in China.The findings from elasticity analysis highlight the heterogeneity in socioeconomic status in determining the fertility trends.In this sense,the current fertility support policies show a targeting error in focusing mainly on encouraging second and third births,with litle attention paid to others.The policy should shift its target forward,focusing on the unmarried young people aged 20 to 29,and encouraging marriages at right ages.In addition,the policy design should take social class heterogeneity into consideration.

关 键 词：初婚递进 生育孩次递进 生育支持政策 政策瞄准偏差 

分 类 号：C921[社会学—人口学]