基于PPRR理论的岩爆应急管理能力评估模型研究  

Evaluation Model of Rockburst Emergency Management Capability Based on PPRR Theory

作　　者：向韫 XIANG Yun(Changsha Institute of Mining Research,Changsha,Hunan 410012,China)

机构地区：[1]长沙矿山研究院有限责任公司,湖南长沙410012

出　　处：《矿业研究与开发》2024年第4期185-194,共10页Mining Research and Development

摘　　要：针对深部矿山岩爆应急管理能力评估具有复杂性、模糊性、未确知性的特点,为进一步提升评估的可靠性,建立了基于改进可拓云的综合评价模型。首先,根据PPRR (Prevention, Preparation, Response, Recovery)危机管理理论,结合岩爆事故的特点,构建了多层次的岩爆应急管理能力评价指标体系;其次,借助序关系分析法(G1法)-反熵权法(A-EWM法)和组合赋权法(CW法)确定指标综合权重;引入了盲数理论,建立盲数矩阵对定性指标数据处理,改进了传统可拓云模型专家直观打分的赋权模式,基于可拓云模型原理,通过计算不同等级下的综合云关联度,按照最大隶属度判别要求,综合分析和评估应急管理能力等级。最后,应用所建立的评价模型对3座矿山岩爆应急管理能力进行实例分析,并与模糊数学和随机Petri网(SPN)评价模型结果相比较。结果显示:3座矿山应急能力均为Ⅳ级,与专家现场调研结论相符合,且3种评价模型评估结果基本一致,验证了本模型在岩爆应急管理能力评估方面具有适应性和有效性。该评价模型可以为危机管理能力的量化评估提供一种切实可行、合理有效的方法。In view of the complexity,fuzziness and uncertainty of the evaluation of rockburst emergency management ability in deep mines,a comprehensive evaluation model based on improved extension cloud was established to further improve the reliability of the evaluation.Firstly,according to the PPRR(Prevention,Preparation,Response,Recovery)crisis management theory,combined with the characteristics of rockburst accidents,a multi-level evaluation index system for rockburst emergency management capability was constructed.Secondly,the order relation analysis method(Gl method)-anti entropy weight method(A-EWM method)and combination weighting method(CW method)were used to determine the comprehensive weight of the index.The blind number theory was introduced,and the blind number matrix was established to process the qualitative index data,which improved the weighting mode of the traditional extension cloud model that experts intuitive scoring.Based on the principle of extension cloud model,the comprehensive cloud correlation degree under different levels was calculated,and the emergency management ability level was comprehensively analyzed and evaluated according to the requirement of maximum membership degree discrimination.Finally,the established evaluation model was used to analyze the rockburst emergency management capacity of three mines,and the results were compared with those of fuzzy mathematics and stochastic Petri net(SPN)evaluation models.The results show that the emergency capacity of the three mines is grade IV,which is consistent with the field investigation conclusions of experts,and the evaluation results of the three evaluation models are basically the same,which verifies the adaptability and effectiveness of the model in the evaluation of rockburst emergency management capacity.The evaluation model can provide a practical,reasonable and effective method for the quantitative evaluation of crisis management capability.

关 键 词：巷道岩爆 应急管理能力 可拓云 盲数理论 

分 类 号：TD324[矿业工程—矿井建设]