基于SST的桓仁水库中长期入库径流预报研究  

Medium and Long Term Inflow Runoff Prediction of Hengren Reservoir Based on SST

作　　者：王凤利 雷晓辉[2,3,4] 相立峰 丁文昌 WANG Feng-li;LEI Xiao-hui;XIANG Li-feng;DING Wen-chang(Heyu Hydropower Development Corporation of GD POWER DEVELOPMENT Co.Ltd.,Benxi 117201,China;China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;School of Water Resources and Hydroelectric Power,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038,China;Hebei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Water Conservancy,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan 056038,China)

机构地区：[1]国电电力发展股份有限公司和禹水电开发公司,辽宁本溪117201 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [3]河北工程大学水利水电学院,河北邯郸056038 [4]河北工程大学河北省智慧水利重点实验室,河北邯郸056038

出　　处：《海河水利》2024年第4期82-86,共5页Haihe Water Resources

摘　　要：将浑江流域与海洋表面温度(SST)的多极耦合中长期预测方法相结合,建立了桓仁水库中长期入库预报模型,并根据模型模拟,确定与浑江流域径流相关度较高的影响因子。选取浑江流域1988—2017年径流资料进行模型参数率定,利用2018、2019年径流资料对模型进行检验。结果表明,模型预报结果与实际情况较为吻合,预报误差较低。本预报模型可为浑江流域中长期径流预报工作提供新的思路和方法。The multipole coupling long-term prediction method of Hunjiang River basin and sea surface temperature(SST)is combined,and the medium and long-term inflow prediction model of Hengren Hydropower Station is established.The influencing factors with high correlation with the runoff of Hunjiang River basin are determined according to the model simulation.The flood period of Hunjiang River basin in 2018 and 2019 is selected for model modeling.The model calculation results are in good agreement with the actual situation,and the prediction error is low.The construction of this prediction model provides ideas and reference for the medium and long-term runoff prediction of Hunjiang River basin.

关 键 词：海洋表面温度 中长期 入库径流预报 

分 类 号：TV697.21[水利工程—水利水电工程]