高速铁路旅客购票时间选择行为研究  

Advance Booking Behavior of High-speed Railway Passengers

作　　者：徐光明[1] 林珊珊 胡心磊 秦进[1] XU Guangming;LIN Shanshan;HU Xinlei;QIN Jin(School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410075,China)

机构地区：[1]中南大学交通运输工程学院,湖南长沙410075

出　　处：《铁道学报》2024年第4期9-19,共11页Journal of the China Railway Society

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72171236,52302396)。

摘　　要：研究高速铁路旅客的购票行为对铁路企业预测需求、优化票价、分配票额等具有重要意义。考虑旅客个体和群体层面的异质性,分别构建混合和潜在类别Logit模型,研究出行时段、票种和供需关系等因素对旅客购票时间选择的影响。利用售票数据估计模型参数,得到高速铁路旅客购票时间选择的规律:一天中下午和晚上出行的旅客在出行当日或前一天购票的可能性更高;购买全价票、儿童票、半价票的旅客偏向于在距离出发日9~30 d内购票,免票旅客往往选择随到随走;供需关系会显著影响旅客的购票时间选择而且越临近出发日影响越显著。进一步结合预售期购票量预测值和旅客购票选择概率,计算各预售阶段的购票量,可为铁路企业制定票额预分和浮动票价等策略提供决策依据。The research on the ticket purchasing behavior of high-speed railway passengers is of significant importance for railway enterprises in predicting demand,pricing optimization,and seat allocation.Taking into account the heterogeneity between individual and group passenger levels,this paper established mixed and latent class logit models to investigate the impact of factors such as travel time periods,ticket type,and supply-demand relationships on passenger choices of ticket purchase timing.By utilizing ticket sales data to estimate model parameters,the study reveals the patterns in the timing of high-speed railway passenger ticket purchases:passengers traveling in the afternoon and evening of the day are more likely to purchase tickets on the day of or one day before their travel.Passengers purchasing full-price tickets,children’s tickets,and half-price tickets tend to buy tickets within 9 to 30 days before departure,while passengers with free tickets often choose to take the train as they arrive at the station shortly before departure.Supply-demand relationships significantly influence passenger choices of ticket purchase timing,with a more pronounced impact as the departure date approaches.By further combining the prediction value of ticket sales volume with passenger ticket purchase probabilities,the study calculates the distribution of ticket sales volumes in the presale horizon.This can serve as a basis for railway enterprises to make decisions on pre-allocating seats and implementing dynamic pricing strategies.

关 键 词：高速铁路 购票时间选择 购票量分布 LOGIT模型 交互效应分析 售票数据 

分 类 号：U293[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]