1970—2022年九江市寒露风灾害变化趋势研究  

Research on Change Trend of Cold Dew Wind Disaster in Jiujiang City from 1970 to 2022

作　　者：周妍 储笑涵 吴昊 ZHOU Yan;CHU Xiao-han;WU Hao(Jiujiang Meteorological Bureau,Jiujiang 332005,China)

机构地区：[1]九江市气象局,江西九江332005

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2024年第2期84-89,共6页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：江西省气象局重点科研项目(JX2022Z09);九江市气象局重点研发项目(JJ202101)。

摘　　要：为提升九江市水稻寒露风防灾减灾的科学水平,利用九江市内9个国家气象观测站1970—2022年的气象数据计算寒露风指数,以寒露风指数为统计标准对九江市寒露风的变化趋势进行分析,最后基于均生函数对未来10年九江市寒露风指数进行了预测。结果表明:寒露风指数的高值区主要集中在九江市西部的修水和武宁站、北部的瑞昌站和中部的德安站,其中20世纪80年代为1970—2022年各年代际的最高值;武宁、瑞昌和永修3站的寒露风指数随时间推移呈现出显著的递减趋势,下降速度分别为3.58/10 a、3.13/10 a和2.32/10 a;武宁站寒露风指数的突变年份为1994年,瑞昌和修水站的出现在2010年前后,其他站点的出现在2020年;未来10年九江市的寒露风指数可能会出现1~2个极小值,出现时间集中在2025—2028年,其中北部的瑞昌和湖口站、中部的德安站、西部的修水站寒露风指数的预测数值较高。To improve the scientific level of rice cold dew wind disaster prevention and mitigation in Jiujiang,the cold dew wind index was calculated based on the meteorological data of 9 national stations in Jiujiang from 1970 to 2022.This paper studied the change trend of cold dew wind in Jiujiang with the cold dew wind index as the statistical standard,and predicted the cold dew wind index in the next ten years based on the mean generating function.The results show that the high values of the cold dew wind index are concentrated in the western part of Jiujiang(Xiushui and Wuning stations),the north part of Jiujiang(Ruichang station)and the middle part of Jiujiang(De’an station),and the highest value is concentrated in the 1980s.The cold dew wind index of Wuning,Ruichang,and Yongxiu stations shows a significant decreasing trend over time,with the decreasing rates of 3.58/10 a,3.13/10 a and 2.32/10 a.The abrupt change year of the cold dew wind index of Wuning station occurred in 1994,Ruichang and Xiushui stations occurred around 2010,and the other stations occurred in 2020.The cold dew wind index may appear 1~2 small extreme values in the next ten years,which will be concentrated in 2025~2028,and the predicted values of cold dew wind index at Ruichang and Hukou(north),De’an(centre),Xiushui(west)stations are relatively high.

关 键 词：水稻 寒露风指数 九江市 趋势变化 

分 类 号：S426[农业科学—植物保护]