海面上升导致泄洪延时-子牙新河案例分析  

Delay of flooding water discharge by sea level rise:a case study on Ziyaxinhe River

作　　者：孙志芹 张泽 姜兴钰 王福[2,3,4] 王宏 SUN Zhiqin;ZHANG Ze;JIANG Xingyu;WANG Fu;WANG Hong(River Center of The South Canal,Cangzhou,Hebei 061001,China;Tianjin Center(North China Geo-Innovation Center),China Geological Survey,Tianjin 300170,China;Key Laboratory of Coastal Geo-environment,China Geological Survey,Tianjin 300170,China;Tianjin Key Laboratory of Surface Process and Environment Safety,Tianjin 300170,China)

机构地区：[1]河北省南运河河务中心,沧州市061001 [2]中国地质调查局天津地质调查中心(华北地质科技创新中心),天津300170 [3]中国地质调查局海岸带地质环境重点实验室,天津300170 [4]天津市海岸带地质过程与环境安全重点实验室,天津300170

出　　处：《华北地质》2024年第1期21-25,共5页North China Geology

基　　金：中国地质调查局项目“黄渤海海岸带重点生态保护修复区综合地质调查(DD20211301)”;“京津冀协同发展区暨雄安新区资源环境承载能力监测评价(DD20221727)”;国家重点基金课题“环渤海滨海地球关键带地质结构和岩相古地理研究(42293261)”。

摘　　要：【研究目的】尽管人们普遍认为全球变化背景下的海面上升是海岸带环境变化的重要驱动因素,但对一个具体地区而言,仍缺少定量化的影响评估,以至于气候变化基础研究与海岸带实际经济社会活动之间存在日渐明显的脱节。本文是试图弥合这种脱节的一次探索。【研究方法】2023年夏秋京冀津地区大暴雨,达到了1963年之后60年一遇的量级,造成生命财产和区域经济的重大损失。本文根据子牙新河洪水闸口泄洪的具体案例,探寻海面上升潮位升高泄洪延时之间可能存在的因果关系。【研究结果】研究发现在21世纪海面上升背景下,渤海湾西岸存在潮位升高1 cm、泄洪时间减少0.02小时的潮位上升与泄洪延时之间的定量时空关系。【结论】提出潮位高于洪水位时不能泄洪的“临界点”概念,并根据联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)关于海面上升的最新预案,尝试做出了今后三个时间节点(2030、2040和2050年)的泄洪延时预测。This paper is the result of flooding water discharge by sea level rise.[Objective]Although being well known that sea level rise under the global climate change is a major driving force of coastal environmental changes,it has long been an obvious gap between the fundamental researches concerned and the existing coastal socio-economical activities,especially the quantitative impact-estimation for a given coastal area.This paper is an approach to remedy such a rift.[Methods]Catastrophic rainfall in the July-August last year,triggered off an one-in-60-years flood in BeijingHebei-Tianjin region.With a process of the flooding-water-discharge in a sluice,we approach a cause-and-effect relationship between elevating tidal level and delays of flood water discharge.[Results]Under the forecast sea level rise in the 21st century,a spacious-temporal relationship between tidal level rise,following the sea level rise,and curtailed discharge time of flooding water as 1 cm versus 0.02 hour.[Conclusions]Thus,a concept of‘tipping point’of the tidal level being higher than the contemporaneous flood water is addressed and delaying discharge time scenarios for the three time nodes 2030,2040 and 2050 are estimated,respectively.

关 键 词：陆地大洪水 泄洪 海面上升 临界点 预案 

分 类 号：P71[天文地球—海洋科学] P731.2[水利工程—水利水电工程] TV87