CFSv2模式对汛期黑龙江省延伸期时段降水预测检验评估  

Verification and Evaluation of CFSv2 for Precipitation Prediction during the Extended Period of Flood Season in Heilongjiang Province

作　　者：班晋[1] 王营 李永生[1] 赵佳莹[1] 马舒扬 宋成玉 王昊 BAN Jin;WANG Ying;LI Yong-sheng;ZHAO Jia-ying;MA Shu-yang;SONG Cheng-yu;WANG Hao(Climate Center of Heilongjiang Province(Heilongjiang Climate Change Center),Heilongjiang Harbin 150030)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江省气候中心,黑龙江哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《黑龙江气象》2024年第1期9-12,共4页Heilongjiang Meteorology

摘　　要：利用1999-2010年CFSv2模式资料,基于国家气候中心Ps和Cs检验方法,对汛期黑龙江省延伸期时段降水趋势和过程进行检验评估。结果发现:模式预测6月延伸期降水趋势效果较差,但从7月上旬开始至8月中旬模式预测技巧明显提高,Ps评分基本通过65分,距平符号一致率也达到50%以上。模式预测延伸期降水过程效果较好的时间为6月上旬、7月上旬、7月下旬和8月中旬,预测降水日数准确率在20%以上。预测结论可以为业务中延伸期降水预测提供参考依据。Based on the CFSv2 model data from 1999 to 2010,the trend and process of precipitation in the extended period of flood season in Heilongjiang Province were tested and evaluated based on the Ps and Cs test methods of the National Climate Center.The results showed that the model had a poor prediction effect on the precipitation trend during the extended period of June,but the model’s prediction skills improved significantly from early July to mid August.The Ps score was basically 65 points,and the consistency rate of anomaly symbols reached more than 50%.The model predicts the extension period precipitation process with good results in early June,early July,late July,and mid August,with an accuracy of over 20%for predicting precipitation days.The prediction conclusion can provide a reference for the extended period precipitation prediction in the business.

关 键 词：黑龙江省 延伸期预测 模式检验评估 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]