2024台湾地区选举结果产生原因与选后政局分析  

Add to Favorite Analysis of the Causes of 2024 Taiwan regional Election Results and Its Post-election Political Situation

作　　者：严安林 Yan Anlin(Shanghai Institutes for International Studies;Shanghai Institute for Taiwan Studies)

机构地区：[1]上海市台湾研究会 [2]上海国际问题研究院学术委员会

出　　处：《台海研究》2024年第1期10-17,共8页Cross-Taiwan Strait Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“新时代推进祖国完全统一的外部环境塑造研究”(22JJD810022)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：2024年1月13日台湾地区“二合一”选举揭晓,民进党候选人“赖萧配”以相对多数得票惨胜。“立委”席次方面,国民党获得52席,民进党获得51席,民众党获得8席,无党籍获得2席,形成“三党不过半”局面。国民党与民众党的“非绿”势力不能联合挑战民进党,是赖清德当选的主因。其次则是民进党基本盘稳固、且大于国民党以及民进党擅长选举与行政资源多。选举结果昭示出台湾地区社会的新变化主要体现在:主流民意并不满意蔡英文八年执政表现;蓝与绿政治板块外出现以柯文哲为代表的白色板块;民众对“安全”与“主权”的关注依然重于对“发展”与“繁荣”的关注;新世代在不断上升为影响台湾地区政治走向重要力量。台湾地区政局演变方向主要体现在:民进党将继续主控政局演变;国民党依然是第二大政治势力但年轻化与“本土化”是唯一选择;民众党站稳第三大党地位与柯文哲目标在四年后的“大选”;“两党政治、三党竞争”是未来四年政党政治基本格局。On January 13, 2024, the results of Taiwan's “two-in-one” election were announced. The DPP candidate “Lai Ching-Te and Hsiao-Khim” won a Pyrrhic victory with a relative majority of votes. In terms of the number of seats in the Legislative Institution, the KMT won 52 seats, the DPP won 51 seats, the TPP won 8 seats, and the independents won 2 seats, forming a situation in which “none of the three parties won a majority”. The main reason for Lai's win is that the “non-Green” forces of the KMT and the TPP were unable to jointly challenge the DPP. The second reason is that the DPP's base is solid and larger than that of the KMT and the DPP is good at election and has more administrative resources. The election results show new changes in the Taiwan society: mainstream public opinion is not satisfied with Tsai Ing-wen's eight-year governing performance. The White camp, represented by Ko Wen-je, emerged outside the Blue and Green political camp. The public is more concerned about “security” and “sovereignty” than “development” and “prosperity”. The new generation is rising to become an important force influencing Taiwan's political direction. The direction of Taiwan's political evolution is mainly reflected in the following: the DPP will continue to dominate the political evolution;the KMT is still the second largest political force, but rejuvenation and “localization” are the only choices;the TPP will stabilize its position as the third largest party, and Ko Wen-je is aiming at the “election” in four years. The basic pattern of the party politics in the next four years will be “two-party politics and three-party competition”.

关 键 词：2024台湾地区选举 两党政治 三党竞争 赖清德 

分 类 号：D675.8[政治法律—政治学]