2024年台湾地区选举政党竞选策略比较研究:基于基本盘的分析视角  

The Comparative Study on the Campaign Strategies of Political Parties in Taiwan regional ——an Analytical Perspective Based on Voting Base

作　　者：翁明源 林小月 Weng Mingyuan;Lin Xiaoyue(Department of Political Science of Sichuan Administrative College;Graduate Institute for Taiwan Studies of Sichuan Province;Political Science of Sichuan Administrative College)

机构地区：[1]四川行政学院政治学教研部 [2]四川省台湾研究中心 [3]四川行政学院

出　　处：《台海研究》2024年第1期51-65,共15页Cross-Taiwan Strait Studies

摘　　要：竞选策略是影响台湾地区政党各项选举结果的关键变量。但各政党的竞选策略是如何制定的呢?本文从政党基本盘出发,建立了观察各政党竞选策略的理论视角。以2024年台湾地区领导人选举中蓝、绿、白三党的竞选策略为例进行比较研究,发现在基本盘方面,民进党有绝对优势,国民党持续萎缩,民众党则初具规模。基于各政党的基本盘体量与属性,民进党以对立保守稳固基本盘,国民党强调团结胜选,民众党则专注青年选票。在攻防策略上,民进党极力破坏“蓝白合”。国民党重点“打绿”压制绿气势,轻度“打白”力求合作。民众党“批蓝打绿”维持声量,最终民进党有得有失实现小胜,国民党难改大势再度失利,民众党策略得当实现突破。Campaign strategy is a key variable that affects the outcome of various elections for political parties in Taiwan region, but how political parties formulate campaign strategies is the subject of inquiry. This study establishes a theoretical perspective for observing the campaign strategies of political parties from the perspective of the voting base. Taking the campaign strategies of the Blue, Green, and White parties in the 2024 Taiwan region lelection as an example for the comparative study, the study found that in terms of voting base, the DPP has an absolute advantage, the KMT continues to shrink, and the TPP is taking shape. Based on the volume and attributes of each party's voting base, the DPP stabilizes its base with oppositional conservatism, the KMT emphasizes unity to win the election, and the TPP focuses on youth votes. In terms of offensive and defensive strategies, the DPP is trying its best to destroy the “Blue-White Cooperation”. The KMT focuses on “fighting against the Green” to suppress the Green Momentum, and lightly “attacking the White” to strive for cooperation. The TPP “criticizes blue camp and hits green camp” to maintain its voice. In the end, the DPP achieved a weak victory with some gains and losses, the KMT lost again without no change in the general trend, and the TPP realized a breakthrough with a proper strategy.

关 键 词：2024年台湾地区选举 政党基本盘 竞选策略 

分 类 号：D675.8[政治法律—政治学]