2024台湾地区选举两岸政策争辩与评述:影响与局限  

Debate and Review on the Cross-Strait Policy of the 2024 Taiwan regional Election: Influence sand Limitations

作　　者：柳金财 Liu Jincai(Department of Public Affairs,Fo Guang University)

机构地区：[1]台湾佛光大学公共事务学系,中国

出　　处：《台海研究》2024年第1期112-123,共12页Cross-Taiwan Strait Studies

摘　　要：本文旨在探讨2024年台湾地区领导人选举中,各党候选人在“九二共识”及两岸论述、路线选择争辩、评价及其影响与局限。赖清德宣称遵循“蔡英文路线”采取“战略清晰”策略,提出“九二共识”等同于“一国两制”,混淆“九二共识”为“一国两制”;倡议“务实台独论”、“两岸互不隶属论”、“台湾地区不是中国的一部分”及“台湾地区事实上已经是一个主权独立的国家”。侯友宜秉持遵循马英九路线,认同“九二共识”、“反对台独”。柯文哲采取“战略模糊”策略,没有公开表态支持或反对“九二共识”,采取“理解与尊重”大陆地区对“九二共识”坚持立场;因倡议“两岸一家亲”进行双城论坛,成为蔡主政下两岸最高级别对话。三党候选人中以国民党两岸论述及路线最具重启两岸协商及两岸治理能力。选举结果赖以四成选票当选“少数领导”,“立院三党不过半”,未来可透过蓝白政治联盟发挥制衡及监督作用,大陆地区对台政策反“独”促统及吓阻效应,美不支持“台独”及协防保卫台湾地区局限,制约赖清德当局较为激进挑衅两岸路线。This study aims to explore how the candidates of multiple parties debated and commented on the 1992 Consensus, cross-Strait statements, and line-choosing during the 2024 Taiwan election, as well as the influences and limitations of the debates and comments. Lai Ching-te claims to follow the “Tsai Ing-wen's line” and adopts the “strategic clarity” strategy. According to Lai Ching-te, the “1992 Consensus” is equal to the principle of “one country, two systems”, which confused the two concepts. Lai Ching-te advocates “pragmatic Taiwan independence”, “neither Chinese mainland nor Taiwan is subordinate to the other”, “Taiwan region is not part of Chinese mainland”, and “Taiwan region is veritably a sovereign nation”. Ko Wen-je adopts the “strategic ambiguity” strategy, so Ko does not declare for or against the “1992 Consensus”. Instead, Ko resorts to “understanding and respecting” Chinese mainland and sticks to the “1992 Consensus”. Because of the proposal that “both sides of the Taiwan Straits are one family”, Ko conducted the Shanghai-Taipei City Forum, which became the dialogue at the highest level across the Strait under Tsai Ing-wen. Among the candidates of the three parties, the KMT's cross-Strait statements and lines have the greatest ability to restart negotiation and governance across the Strait. According to the election result, Lai Ching-te becomes the “narrowly elected leader” with just over 40 percent of the vote. None of the three parties won a majority. In the future, the radically provocative line towards the Taiwan Strait can be restricted, because the “Blue-White Cooperation” in politics will play the role of checks, balances, and supervision. Chinese mainland will take an “anti-independence” approach to promote reunification while deterring the “independence activists”, the US will not back “Taiwan independence”, and the assistance in the “protection of Taiwan” will be limited.

关 键 词：“九二共识” 两岸一家亲 “务实台独论” 两岸“互不隶属论” 

分 类 号：D618[政治法律—政治学] D675.8[政治法律—中外政治制度]