台湾地区民意调查的发展历程、现有困境及解决方案:以2024台湾地区选举为例  

Development Process,Existing Dilemma,and Solution of Taiwan Public Opinion Poll:A Case Study of 2024 Taiwan regional Election

作　　者：张佑宗 Zhang Youzong(Department of Political Science,National Taiwan University;Center for East Asia Democratic Studies,National Taiwan University)

机构地区：[1]台湾大学政治学系,中国 [2]台湾大学社会科学院东亚民主研究中心,中国

出　　处：《台海研究》2024年第1期124-137,共14页Cross-Taiwan Strait Studies

摘　　要：民意调查在2024台湾地区选举中扮演非常关键的角色,没有一位候选人不依据民调结果确定其选战策略。在激烈的选举过程中,每天几乎都有多个民调机构公布民调结果,其中混杂许多假民调,企图影响选举结果。台湾地区民调准不准、哪家最准、何种调查方法最准确?本文以2024年台湾地区选举作为研究对象,比较台湾地区多家民调机构的数据后,证明混合模式(mixed-mode)的调查方法,也就是合并传统电话调查与网络调查(会员数据库)的方式,将会是未来台湾地区民意调查方法的最新趋势。The public opinion polls play a fairly significant role in the 2024 Taiwan region Election because all candidates determined the election strategy based on the results of the polls. During the fierce elections, multiple polling agencies published the poll results almost every day, among which many were fabricated to impact the election results. The accuracy of polls, the most precise poll, and the optimal survey method are subjects of inquiry. Taking the 2024 Taiwan region Election as the case, comparing the data from multiple polling agencies, this study proves that the mixed-mode method which combines the traditional telephone survey and online survey(membership database) will be the latest trend of the poll method in the Taiwan region.

关 键 词：2024台湾地区选举 民意调查 混合模式 电话+网络调查 

分 类 号：D675.8[政治法律—政治学]