美国介入2024台湾地区选举的策略及影响  

U.S.Intervention in the 2024 Taiwan regional Election: Strategy, Impact and Future Development

作　　者：钟厚涛 Zhong Houtao(University of International Relations)

机构地区：[1]国际关系学院对台战略预置和重点问题创新研究团队 [2]海峡两岸关系法学研究会

出　　处：《台海研究》2024年第1期150-161,共12页Cross-Taiwan Strait Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金后期项目“美国对台湾当局海洋政策的影响研究”(22FZZB009)。

摘　　要：美国以巧实力原则深度介入台湾地区2024年地区选举,通过对民进党、国民党和民众党三党候选人“面试”摸底评估,确立“挺绿抑蓝稳白”基本立场,继而切割国民党、分化“蓝白合”,并在选举前关键时刻力挺民进党。美国认为,在中美战略博弈持续加剧情势下,民进党连任更有助于美国落实“以台制华”战略,美国也可借此对两岸关系进行“再平衡”,对冲中国内地对两岸关系的主导权和主控权。未来美国将以既破又立的双轨策略推进台湾地区问题国际化,在消解联合国2758号决议权威性的同时,在联合国体系之外构建新的将台湾地区纳入其中的多边体系。但美国对台政策正在遭遇战略模糊与战略清晰之间的平衡困境,未来美国只有恪守一个中国原则和中美三个联合公报,才能维护台海地区和平稳定。Based on the principle of smart power, the United States deeply intervened in the 2024 Taiwan Election. Through “interviews” and evaluations of candidates from the three parties: the DPP, the KMT, and the TPP, the United States has established the basic position of “supporting the DPP, suppressing the KMT and stabilizing the TPP”. The U.S. then dissolved the KMT, polarized the “Blue-White Cooperation” and supported the DPP at the critical moment before the election. The United States believes that as the US-China strategic competition continues to intensify, the re-election of the DPP will help the United States implement the strategy of “using Taiwan to contain China”, which could be used to “rebalance” cross-Strait relations and hedge against Chinese mainland's dominance between the two sides. In the coming years, the United States will promote the internationalization of the Taiwan Question with a dual-track strategy. While dispelling the authority of United Nations Resolution 2758, the United States will build a new multilateral system outside the United Nations system that will include Taiwan region. However, the U.S. policy toward the Taiwan region is encountering a balance dilemma between strategic ambiguity and strategic clarity. In the future, the United States should adhere to the one-China principle and the three Sino-U.S. joint communiques to maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan region Strait.

关 键 词：美国介选 “挺绿抑蓝稳白” 战略困境 

分 类 号：D675.8[政治法律—政治学] D822.371.2[政治法律—中外政治制度]