南水北调中线工程水源区和受水区的降水时空变化特征及丰枯遭遇  

Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics of Precipitation and Drought-Waterlogging Encounter Probability in Water Source and Receiving Areas of Middle Route Project of South-to-North Water Diversion Project

作　　者：陈茜茜 屈艳萍[1,2] 吕娟[1,2] 张学君 Chen Xixi;Qu Yanping;LüJuan;Zhang Xuejun(China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Engineering Research Center for Flood Control,Drought Relief and Disaster Reduction,Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [2]水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心,北京100038

出　　处：《水土保持通报》2024年第1期136-146,共11页Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目“基于多层级水网工程和数字孪生技术的特大干旱协同防控”(2023YFC3006602);水利部水旱灾害防御创新团队项目(WH0145B042021);中国水利水电科学研究院基本科研业务费专项项目“基于遥感水碳耦合模型的农业干旱动态评估技术”(JZ110145B0032023)。

摘　　要：[目的]基于1950—2022年时间序列ERA5再分析降水数据,探究南水北调中线工程水源区和受水区降水量时空变化特征,旨在保障跨流域调水的可行性和持续性,为南水北调中线工程水资源调度和运行管理提供科学参考。[方法]采用Mann-Kendall检验、小波分析、云模型以及Copula函数等方法,分析水源区和受水区降水变化趋势以及丰枯遭遇特征。[结果]①1950—2022年南水北调工程水源区和受水区分别按照年降水量34.75和39.35mm/(10a)幅度减少,水源区年降水量存在43a的主周期,受水区年降水量存在55a的主周期。②云模型隶属云图夏季降水量分布不均且离散程度较高,而冬季分布均匀且较集中。③调水不利的组合汛期和非汛期遭遇频率分别为23.15%和25.92%。[结论]水源区和受水区年降水量均呈现明显减少趋势,水源区丰枯交替变化显著;南北丰枯异步概率大于丰枯同步,同枯频率不高,有利于调水工程的安全性和可靠性。研究结果可为制定南水北调中线工程相关政策和技术指导提供理论依据,有助于工程的规划和管理,提高水资源利用效率和可持续性。[Objective]Based on the ERA5 reanalysis of precipitation data from 1950 to 2022,the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of precipitation in the water source area and water receiving area of the south-to-north water transfer project were explored in order to ensure the feasibility and sustainability of inter-basin water transfer,and provide a scientific reference for water resource scheduling and operation management of the middle route project of south-to-north water diversion project.[Methods]The Mann-Kendall test,wavelet analysis,cloud model,and Copula function were used to analyze the trend of precipitation change and the characteristics of drought-waterlogging encounters in the water source area and the water receiving area.[Results]①During 1950-2022,annual precipitation in the water source area and the water receiving area of the south-to-north water diversion project has decreased by 34.75 mm/(10 yr)and 39.35 mm/(10 yr),respectively.The annual precipitation in the water source area and the water receiving area exhibited a main cycle of 43 years and 55 years,respectively;②Precipitation in the subordinate cloud map was unevenly distributed and discretely dispersed in summer,while precipitation distribution was uniform and concentrated in winter;③The unfavorable water diversion encounter frequencies for the flood season and the non-flood season were 23.15%and 25.92%,respectively.[Conclusion]Annual precipitation in both the water source area and the water receiving area showed a decreasing trend.The alternating change of precipitation between the wet season and the dry season in the source area was significant.The probability of asynchronous drought-waterlogging was greater than that of synchronization,and the frequency of simultaneous drought in the north and the south was relatively low,which increased the safety and reliability of water diversion projects.These research results provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of relevant policies and technical guidance for the middle route project

关 键 词：南水北调中线工程 MANN-KENDALL检验 小波分析 云模型 丰枯遭遇 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]