消费率与工业化:一个跨国实证研究  

Consumption Rate and Industrialization:A Cross-Country Empirical Study

作　　者：崔琳 CUI Lin(The Economics Teaching and Research Department,Party School of the Central Committee of C.P.C(National Academy of Governance),100091)

机构地区：[1]中共中央党校(国家行政学院)经济学教研部,100091

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2024年第4期80-90,共11页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：2023年度中央党校(国家行政学院)校级科研项目“比较优势动态演化视角下的现代化产业体系构建机制与路径研究”(批准号:2023QN044)阶段性成果之一。

摘　　要：消费是一国经济发展的直观反映,本文利用跨国数据,研究以工业增加值占比为代表的工业化程度对一国消费率的影响。研究发现:工业化导致消费率降低,即使考虑到工业化过程中投资率上升挤压消费率、经济发展初期必选消费品占比快速下滑等因素,这种影响依然存在。影响机制上,伴随工业化过程中劳动报酬占比的下降是导致居民消费能力相对不足的重要原因,更为平等的收入分配结构能够大幅抑制工业化对于消费率的负向影响。对于低收入国家而言,尽管过早去工业化能够提升消费率,但需要付出经济增长放缓的巨大代价。从我国来看,当前工业占比超过约九成国家,收入均等化尚有进一步改善空间,在经济发展过程中难以避免出现消费率偏低的现象。未来我国消费率的根本改善与居民整体收入水平的提高密切相关,依赖于经济发展过程中收入分配体系的持续优化以及投资效率和质量的有效提升。Consumption is an intuitive reflection of a country's economic development.This paper uses cross-country data to study the impact of the degree of industrialization,represented by the share of industrial value added,on a country's consumption rate.It is found that industrialization leads to lower consumption rates.Even if we take into account that the rise in the investment rate in the process of industrialization squeezes the rate of consumption,and the rapid decline in the share of mandatory consumer goods in the early stage of economic development,the negative impact of industrialization on the rate of consumption still exists.The mechanism analysis shows that the decline share of labor compensation in the process of industrialization is an important reason for the relative lack of consumption capacity of the population,and a more equitable income distribution structure can significantly weaken the negative impact of industrialization on consumption rates.For low-income countries,although premature de-industrialization can raise the consumption rate,cost is the slowdown of economic growth.From China's point of view,the current industrial share exceeds more than about 90%of the countries,and income equalization still has further room for improvement.As a result,in the process of economic development,it is difficult to avoid the phenomenon of low consumption rate.The fundamental improvement of China's consumption rate in the future is closely related to the improvement of the overall income level of the residents,and the continuous optimization of the income distribution system as well as the effective improvement of the efficiency and quality of investment.

关 键 词：消费率 工业化 经济发展 产业结构 收入均等化 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学]