考虑推力意图的航空器连续爬升垂直剖面预测  

Aircraft vertical profile prediction for continuous climb based on thrust intention

作　　者：杜卓铭 张军峰[1] 苗洪连 王斌 DU Zhuoming;ZHANG Junfeng;MIAO Honglian;WANG Bin(College of Civil Aviation,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 210016,China;Central and Southern Regional Air Traffic Management Bureau of the Civil Aviation Administration of China,Guangzhou 510403,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学民航学院,南京210016 [2]中国民用航空中南地区空中交通管理局,广州510403

出　　处：《北京航空航天大学学报》2024年第4期1347-1353,共7页Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(U1933117)。

摘　　要：航空器连续爬升剖面的准确预测可以提高冲突探测的可靠性和离场排序的精确性。基于推力设置信息,提出航空器推力意图的建模方法。利用航空器的全能量方程,考虑风速向量与温度信息,提出考虑推力意图的航空器连续爬升垂直剖面的预测方法。利用快速存取记录器(QAR)数据,进行多案例的对比分析,以QAR每一数据帧为采样点,重点对预测剖面的真空速、高度和燃油流量等进行误差分析。考察不同预测方法,对比到达爬升顶点(TOC)的时间和距离的误差。结果表明:采用所提预测方法可以将到达TOC时间平均绝对误差控制在1 min内;与不考虑推力意图的预测方法相比,可以降低到达TOC时间平均绝对误差约52%。Accurate continuous climb profile prediction can improve conflict detection reliability and departure scheduling precision.A method of modeling aircraft thrust intention based on the thrust setting information is proposed.A vertical profile prediction method for the continuous ascent is suggested,taking into account temperature data,wind vector,thrust purpose,and the total energy model.The case studies and comparative analysis are based on quick access recorder(QAR)data.The analysis is focused on the error between the predicted and actual values of true airspeed,altitude,and fuel flow at each sampling data from QAR.In addition,the evaluation is done on the mean absolute error of the duration and distance to the top of climb(TOC)between the actual and anticipated values.The results indicate that the TOC arrival time mean absolute error could be controlled to within 1 minute by the proposed prediction method.The arrival time mean absolute error at TOC can be reduced by approximately 52%compared to prediction methods without considering the thrust intent.

关 键 词：空中交通管理 航迹预测 连续爬升 性能模型 推力意图 

分 类 号：V352[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]