全球变暖背景下中国海域风速长期变化趋势分析及风资源评估  

Assessment of Long-Term Variations of Wind Speed and Wind Resources in China Seas Under the Global Warming

作　　者：徐杰[1] 胡玉植 李江夏 朱博渊 任宁丹 XU Jie;HU Yuzhi;LI Jiangxia;ZHU Boyuan;REN Ningdan(School of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering,Changsha University of Science&Technology,Changsha 410114,China;Zhongnan Engineering Corporation Limited,Power Construction Corporation of China,Changsha 410014,China;Key Laboratory of Water-Sediment Sciences and Water Disaster Prevention of Hunan Province,Changsha 410114,China)

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学水利与环境工程学院,湖南长沙410114 [2]中国电建集团中南勘测设计研究院有限公司,湖南长沙410014 [3]水沙科学与水灾害防治湖南省重点实验室,湖南长沙410114

出　　处：《海洋科学进展》2024年第2期269-280,共12页Advances in Marine Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42376201和52209079);湖南省自然科学基金项目(2022JJ40483);湖南省教育厅优秀青年项目(21B0300)。

摘　　要：采用第六阶段国际耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6,CMIP6)数据对未来我国海域风速长期变化趋势进行分析,并评估风能资源分布的变化。研究表明SSP126、SSP245、SSP370和SSP585共四种代表性情景下,2015—2100年东海风速呈显著减小趋势;南海海域风速随外辐射强迫的增加呈显著增长趋势;黄海、渤海地区增长趋势较弱。未来南海北部海域风功率密度显著增加,相对历史数据最大增长12%,东海则有所下降,最大降幅为11%。4种代表性情景下,近岸风能总体变化较小,随着人为辐射强迫增加呈现略减小趋势,长江口附近海域风功率密度及年均风能随外辐射强迫增加而出现较为明显下降,黄海、渤海、南海沿岸大多基本维持不变。The data from the International Coupled Model Comparison Program Phase 6(CMIP6)were used to analyze the future long-term variations of wind speed in China seas and to assess the changes in wind resource distribution.The results show that under four representative scenarios,SSP126,SSP245,SSP370 and SSP585 from 2015 to 2100,the wind speed in the East China Sea shows a significant decreasing trend and the wind speed in the South China Sea shows a significant increasing trend with the increase of external radiative forcing,while the increasing trend in the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea are weaker.The wind power density in the northern part of the South China Sea increases significantly in future scenarios,with a maximum increase of 12%relative to historical mean,while that in the East China Sea decreases,with a maximum decrease of 11%.Under the four scenarios,the overall change in near-shore wind power is small,but generally decreases with the increase in external radiative forcing.The wind power density and annual mean wind power in the sea area near the Yangtze River Estuary decreases significantly with the increase in external radiative forcing,while that in the Yellow Sea,the Bohai Sea,and most of the South China Sea coasts generally remain unchanged.

关 键 词：全球变暖 CMIP6 ScenarioMIP 风速 风能 趋势分析 

分 类 号：TK81[动力工程及工程热物理—流体机械及工程] TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]