中国城市污染排放的俱乐部收敛特征及其动态演变  

The Club Convergence and Its Dynamic Evolution of Urban Pollutant Emissions in China

作　　者：王俏茹 刘达禹 刘廷宇[1,2] Wang Qiaoru;Liu Dayu;Liu Tingyu(School of Economics and Management,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China;Research Center of Central China Economic and Social Development,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,China;Center for Quantitative Economics,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌大学经济管理学院,江西南昌330031 [2]南昌大学中国中部经济社会发展研究中心,江西南昌330031 [3]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2024年第3期70-81,共12页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：江西省社会科学“十四五”(2022年)基金青年项目(22YJ31);江西省高校人文社会科学研究青年项目(JJ21225);全国统计科学研究优选项目(2023LY067);江西省教育科学“十四五”规划青年项目(23QN003)。

摘　　要：本文在修正的空间绿色索洛模型框架下对我国城市污染排放的收敛性问题进行了理论分析与实证检验,主要得出以下几点结论:首先,理论分析表明,当减排技术增长率大于总产出增长率时,经济将跨越环境库兹涅茨曲线拐点,这为污染排放收敛的存在性提供了学理支持;随后,空间面板模型的估计结果表明,当前中国城市污染排放已具备收敛属性,而“俱乐部收敛”将率先实现;最后,分组估计的结果显示,中国当前存在轻度污染、中度污染和高污染三类城市集群,其中,低污染城市群的治污工作已进入良性发展模式;中度污染城市群则出现了污染转移现象,体现出一定的以邻为壑效应;而高污染城市群中出现了典型的污染正反馈循环机制,仍存在着污染加剧的风险。A theoretical analysis and empirical examination of the convergence of pollution emissions in China is conducted under the modified spatial green Solow model framework.The following key conclusions are primar⁃ily drawn:Firstly,theoretical analysis suggests that when the growth rate of emission reduction technologies exceeds the overall output growth rate,the economy will surpass the turning point of the environmental Kuznets curve,providing theoretical support for the existence of pollution emission convergence.Subsequently,the results of the spatial panel model estimation indicate that urban pollution emissions in China currently exhibit convergent characteristics,with“club convergence”being the first to materialize.Finally,the results of the grouped estimation reveal that there are three categories of urban clusters in China,namely,low-pollution,moderate-pollution,and high-pollution.Among them,the low-pollution city cluster has entered a virtuous development model for pollution control.The moderate-pollution club has experienced pollution transfer phenomena,reflecting a certain degree of“pollution haven”effect.In contrast,the high-pollution club exhibits a typical pollution-positive feedback loop mechanism,indicating the continued risk of worsening pollution.

关 键 词：城市污染排放 俱乐部收敛 空间绿色索洛模型 空间诊断 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]