大国应对第三国危机的策略选择--基于1946-1963年美苏冷战的案例考察  

Strategic Choices for Major Powers to Cope with Third-Country Crises:A Case Study of the Cold War Between the United States and the Soviet Union from 1946 to 1963

作　　者：王梓元 Wang Ziyuan(Assistant Professor at the Institute of International Relations,China Foreign Affairs University)

机构地区：[1]外交学院国际关系研究所,北京100037

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2024年第3期68-93,157,158,共28页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“弘扬人类共同价值:国际关系‘价值驱动理论'研究”(项目批准号:22AZD103)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：在大国战略博弈与地区冲突频发的背景下,竞争中的大国如何应对第三国危机值得关注。一般而言,大国会将第三国内部发生的政治动荡以及第三国之间的军事冲突视作提升自身权势的机遇,也会通过回应危机向对手释放信号,或者通过竞争对手回应危机的方式了解对方的决心和意图。为了管控冲突,大国会设法达成势力范围约定,但相关约定并不能完全约束大国的行为。作者将势力范围约定作为重要的自变量并提出了理论假说,以1946-1963年期间美苏冷战的案例对假说进行了检验。该案例检验表明,美苏两国在达成势力范围约定之前会频繁干涉和介入发生在欧亚大陆上的第三国危机,并试图通过结盟的方式阻止竞争对手借助该事件扩张其权势。美苏两国在达成势力范围约定之后,美国对发生在苏联势力范围内的危机事件采取了置身事外的态度,但双方在约定的势力范围之外依然展开了持续的干涉行为。事实上,在主权平等观念深入人心的20世纪,势力范围已失去正当性,相关势力范围的约定并不是大国管控竞争的最佳方案。In the context of frequent major powers'strategic bargaining and regional conflicts,how competing major powers respond to third-country crises deserves special attention.In general,major powers would regard political turmoil within third countries and military conflicts between third countries as opportunities to enhance their own power;they would send signals to their rival through their responses to crises;or they may learn about the resolve and intent of each other through the way their rival responds to crises.In order to manage conflicts,major powers would try to reach an agreement on spheres of influence,but such an agreement cannot fully constrain the behavior of major powers.The author uses the sphere-of-influence agreement as an important independent variable to propose a theoretical hypothesis,and tests this hypothesis by examining the case of the Cold War competition between the United States and the Soviet Union from 1946 to 1963.This case shows that before the United States and the Soviet Union reached an agreement on their spheres of influence,they would frequently intervene in third-country crises in Eurasia and try to form alliances in order to prevent their competitors from taking advantage of the incident to expand their power.After the United States and the Soviet Union reached an agreement on spheres of influence,the United States adopted a neutral attitude toward crises that occurred within the Soviet Union's sphere of influence,while both sides continued to undertake intervention actions outside their agreed spheres of influence.In fact,since the 2Oth century,when the notion of sovereign equality became a prevailing international norm,spheres-of-influence agreements have lost legitimacy and are hence not the optimal solution for great powers to manage their competition.

关 键 词：大国竞争 第三国危机 区域冲突 势力范围 美苏冷战 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]