“印太”海洋超级安全复合体的聚合  

The Aggregation of the"Indo-Pacific"Maritime Super Security Complex

作　　者：范佳睿 Fan Jiarui(National Institute of International Strategy,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院,北京100007

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2024年第3期127-155,159,160,共31页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“印太战略背景下马六甲海峡沿岸三国主导的海峡多边安全治理与中国的战略选择”(项目批准号:23CGJ048)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：当前,南海问题正在美国实施“印太战略”的背景下升级为全球热点,引发印度洋与太平洋及东南亚、东北亚和南亚等次区域主要行为体的广泛关切。以主权和航行等议题为重点领域,美国等全球性大国逐步介入这一区域并扮演了越来越重要的角色,导致地区安全形势日益复杂化。基于对地区安全复合体理论的逻辑演绎,作者认为这一现象反映出以南海海域为内核、以“印太”区域为外延的海洋超级安全复合体已初步形成。驱动这一安全复合体聚合的变量包括各国的权力关系预期与地缘政治想象,前者越趋异、后者越趋同,安全议题越容易突破原有区域边界发生跨区域延展。这一态势与大国竞争加剧的趋势相互刺激而螺旋上升,是特定区域内各方的安全互动升级至全球层面的反映,也是世界大国深度介入区域安全议题的重要案例。主权议题扩大化、航行议题政治化和“印太”议题实心化是推动这一安全复合体初步成形的三个代表性议题领域,其演进态势关涉中国国家安全与亚洲和平稳定。Recently,the South China Sea issue has become a hot topic around the world against the backdrop of"the Indo-Pacific Strategy".This phenomenon has triggered widespread concern of major actors in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean,Southeast Asia,Northeast Asia and South Asia,with sovereignty and navigation as the key areas,in which the United States and some other global powers are playing increasingly important roles,making the regional security situation more and more complicated.Based on logical deduction of the theory of regional security complex,the author argues that this phenomenon shows that a maritime super security complex has initially taken shape,with the South China Sea as its core and the"Indo-Pacific"region as its extension.There are two core explanatory variables.The first one is the expectation of power relations.and the second is the geopolitical imagination of various countries.This paper reveals that the more different the former becomes,as well as the more consistent the latter shows,the more likely the regional security issues are to extend across regions.This situation spirals and twists with the trend of intensified competition among major powers,and reflects the upgrading of security interactions within all parties in a specific region to the global level,as well as a case of world powers deeply involved in regional security issues.There are three representative issues that promote the initial formation of this maritime super security complex,namely the expansion of sovereignty issue,the politicization of navigation issue and the realization of the"Indo-Pacific"issue.

关 键 词：南海问题 “印太战略” 海洋超级安全复合体 国际安全 大国竞争 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]