我国肉鸡饲料价格波动特征及影响因素分析  

Fluctuation characteristics and influencing factors of broiler feed price in China

作　　者：王燕[1] 杨祥钊[1] WANG Yan;YANG Xiang-zhao

机构地区：[1]广西职业技术学院,广西南宁530226

出　　处：《饲料研究》2024年第6期175-179,共5页Feed Research

基　　金：2022年度广西高校中青年教师科研基础能力提升项目"乡村振兴背景下广西茶叶品牌建设的路径研究(项目编号:桂教科研[2022]2号2022KY0976)"。

摘　　要：文章旨在分析肉鸡价格波动特征及影响因素,有利于推动禽类养殖业健康稳定发展。基于2002年1月-2022年12月我国252个肉鸡饲料企业样本数据,在通过平稳性检验后,采用VAR模型和方差分解法,从肉鸡饲料价格、供给和需求方面分析引起我国肉鸡饲料价格波动的主要因素。结果显示,在供给层面,肉鸡饲料价格波动的主要影响因素为玉米存量和豆粕存量,第7期玉米存量和豆粕存量对当月肉鸡饲料价格的影响占比分别是30.78%和20.39%。在需求层面,在第7期农村居民人均可支配收入和可繁殖母鸡存栏量对肉鸡饲料价格的影响占比较高,分别为9.06%和6.87%。研究表明,肉鸡饲料价格波动受肉鸡饲料自身价格影响程度最大,随后依次为玉米存量、豆粕存量、农村居民人均可支配收入、可繁殖母鸡存栏量、鱼虾肉价格、肉鸡存栏量、牛肉价格和城镇居民人均可支配收入。This paper aims to analyze the characteristics and influencing factors of broiler price fluctuation,which is beneficial to promote the healthy and stable development of poultry breeding industry.Based on the sample data of 252 broiler feed enterprises in China from January 2002 to December 2022,after passing the stability test,VAR model and variance decomposition method were used to analyze the main factors causing the fluctuation of broiler feed price in China from the aspects of broiler feed price,supply,and demand.The results showed that at the supply level,the main influencing factors of broiler feed price fluctuation were corn stock and soybean meal stock,and the impact of corn stock and soybean meal stock on broiler feed price in the seventh period were 30.78%and 20.39%,respectively.At the demand level,in the seventh period,the per capita disposable income of rural residents and the stock of fertile broilers had a relatively high impact on broiler feed prices,which were 9.06%and 6.87%,respectively.The results showed that the price fluctuation of broiler feed was most affected by the price of broiler feed itself,followed by corn stock,soybean meal stock,per capita disposable income of rural residents,breeding hens stock,fish and shrimp price,broiler stock,beef price,and per capita disposable income of urban residents.

关 键 词：肉鸡饲料价格 供需结构 玉米存量 豆粕存量 

分 类 号：S8-9[农业科学—畜牧兽医]