地方政府举债融资机制与隐性债务管理——基于对撤县设区改革中政府举债行为的分析  

Local Government Debt Financing Mechanism and Implicit Debt Management:An Analysis of the Government Debt Financing Behavior in the Reform of Withdrawing Counties and Establishing Districts

作　　者：吉富星 洪源[2] 秦玉奇 Ji Fuxing;Hong Yuan;Qin Yuqi

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院 [2]湖南大学经济与贸易学院 [3]湖南工商大学财政金融学院

出　　处：《中国农村经济》2024年第3期166-184,共19页Chinese Rural Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“地方政府隐性债务显性化的可持续性评估与优化路径研究”(编号:22BJY079);中国社会科学院大学卓越研究项目“基于财政金融协同视角防范系统性风险研究”(编号:20230025)的资助。

摘　　要：本文实证检验了撤县设区改革通过地方政府举债融资机制对地方隐性债务规模扩张的影响。结果显示:撤县设区改革能够通过影响政府举债融资机制供需两方面的土地融资杠杆和投资竞争需求,引起地方隐性债务规模的扩张,同时在项目、资金层面形成多个作用路径。从债务监管环境看,债务监管越严,越能抑制撤县设区改革对隐性债务规模扩张的作用。进一步分析发现,受显性债务替代效应和隐性债务增量压缩效应影响,地方债务“显性化”政策能抑制撤县设区改革对隐性债务规模的扩张效应。上述结论对于防范化解地方债务风险以及实现新型城镇化具有政策启示:应审慎推进行政区划调整模式下的城镇化,开好举债“前门”、推动融资平台转型和项目合规融资,降低土地财政依赖,加强债务监管,构建更有效防范化解地方债务风险的长效机制。This paper empirically examines the impact of the reform of withdrawing counties and establishing districts on the expansion of local implicit debt through the local government debt financing mechanism.The results show that the reform of withdrawing counties and establishing districts can lead to the expansion of the scale of local implicit debt by influencing the leverage of land financing and competition for investment demand on both the supply and demand sides of the government’s debt financing mechanism,and at the same time form a number of paths at the project and finding levels.From the perspective of the debt regulation environment,the stricter the debt regulation is,the more it can inhibit the effect of the reform of withdrawing counties and establishing districts on the expansion of the scale of implicit debt.Further analysis shows that,the policy of“making local debt explicit”can inhibit the expansion effect of the reform of withdrawing counties and establishing districts on the scale of implicit debt due to the substitution effect of explicit debt and the incremental compression effect of implicit debt.The above findings have policy implications for the prevention and resolution of local debt risks and the realization of new urbanization:It is necessary to prudently promote urbanization under the mode of administrative division adjustment,open the“front door”of debt financing,promote the transformation of financing platforms and compliant financing of projects,and reduce the dependence on land financing and strengthening debt supervision,etc.A more effective long-term mechanism to prevent and resolve local debt risks should be constructed.

关 键 词：举债融资机制 地方隐性债务 撤县设区改革 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]