减税抑或增支:企业投资主导因素差异下的政策效应比较  

Tax Cuts or Fiscal Spending Increases:A Comparison of Policy Effect under the Difference of Leading Factors on Enterprise Investment

作　　者：莫长炜[1] 邹乐欢 王燕武[2,3] MO Chang-wei;ZOU Le-huan;WANG Yan-wu(School of Economics,Xiamen University;The Paula and Gregory Chow Institute for Studies in Economics,Xiamen University;Center for Macroeconomic Research,Xiamen University)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院 [2]厦门大学邹至庄经济研究院 [3]厦门大学宏观经济研究中心

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2024年第2期22-41,共20页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“经济特征变化下的中国减税降费政策组合研究”(批准号20BJY231);教育部重点研究基地重大项目“中国宏观经济计量模型研究与应用”(批准号22JJD790050)。

摘　　要：2016年以来,以“降成本”为导向的减税降费政策成为积极财政政策的重要内容。但宏观经济运行数据显示,固定资产投资尤其是民间投资增速在这段时期持续下行。在当前经济运行趋势不明朗、市场需求信心仍然不足的背景下,提升民间投资对财政政策的政策敏感性,将是促进财政政策提质增效的重要前提。本文首先利用中国宏观季度数据,检验了不同经济运行时期决定企业投资的主导因素差别,然后借助动态一般均衡模型框架分析不同投资主导因素下财政政策工具的效应差异。结果显示:在经济收缩时期,企业投资更多受消费需求因素拉动,成本因素的作用有限;反之,在经济扩张时期,成本因素对企业投资的激励作用大于消费需求因素。在此背景下,当消费需求主导企业投资时,财政增支的“促投资、促就业和稳增长”效应优于减税。然而,市场出清与否会影响增支的正向效应,削弱其相对于减税的作用优势。在引入财政支出职能分类和内生财政政策规则之后,前述结论保持稳健。本文认为,决策部门要顺应当前企业投资主导因素的转变,财政政策取向要变“降成本”为“扩需求”,强调更有利于刺激有效需求的增支导向。本文对于激励企业投资、优化财政政策效果具有重要的政策启示。Since 2016,in order to deal with economic downturn risks and boost corporate investment confidence,the policies of cutting taxes and fees have become an important part of fiscal policy.Decision-making departments hope to help enterprises through“cost reduction”,but the macroeconomic data show that the growth rate of fixed asset investment,especially private investment,has continued to decline during this period,and enterprise investment has been sluggish.In view of this,this paper focuses on how to effectively promote enterprise investment,and analyzes the effect difference of fiscal policy tools under different leading factors of enterprise investment.According to the neoclassical investment model proposed by Jorgenson(1963),the factors that determine enterprise investment can be divided into two categories:consumer demand factors and cost factors.After distinguishing the two leading factors that affect enterprise investment,this paper empirically examines the effects of consumption demand and cost factors on enterprise investment in different economic periods by using the macro quarterly data from 2002 to 2023 and using the local projection(LP)method.Then,based on the new Keynesian model constructed by Nolan and Thoenissen(2008),this paper constructs DSGE models with different investment decision mechanisms to analyze the impact of differences in leading factors of enterprise investment on the effects of different types of fiscal policy instruments.In addition,this paper also focuses on the difference in the effect of the two types of leading factors on policy instruments when product supply and consumption demand are not clear.The main results of this paper are as follows.First,in the period of economic contraction,enterprise investment is more driven by consumption demand.In the period of economic expansion,the cost factor has a greater incentive effect on enterprise investment.Second,when consumer demand dominates corporate investment,the effect of fiscal increase on“stable investment,employment and gr

关 键 词：企业投资 减税降费 财政增支 财政政策效果 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]