自然禀赋决定城市规模:中国经验与启示  

Urban Size Is Determined by Natural Endowment:China's Experiences and It's Enlightenment

作　　者：苏红键[1] SU Hong-jian(Rural Development Institute,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院农村发展研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《经济体制改革》2024年第2期50-56,共7页Reform of Economic System

基　　金：国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“城乡福祉、空间均衡与城镇化方略”(20FJLB019)。

摘　　要：随着中国城镇化快速推进,城镇体系不断调整,明确城市规模决定因素具有重要的理论和现实意义。利用1985~2020年中国城市数据检验城市规模的自然禀赋决定论,研究发现:东部沿海虚拟变量与城市规模和城市增长显著正相关,改革开放释放了其区位优势;以一月平均最低气温衡量的气候舒适度与城市增长显著正相关,人们倾向于向冬季温暖的地方迁移;地形起伏度与城市规模显著负相关;资源型城市虚拟变量与城市规模和城市增长显著负相关;较高的行政等级或政策支持能够强化自然禀赋的优势,但较难扭转自然禀赋的劣势。据此,应尊重城市和区域发展规律,因地制宜促进城市发展,积极优化各类城市功能,加强区际、城际合作,推动各地区共同富裕。In the process of the rapid urbanization and continuous adjustment of the urban system in China,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to clarify the determinants of the urban size.This paper proposes the idea that the urban size is determined by the natural endowment,and uses China's urban data during 1985-2020 to test it.It is found that the dummy variable of the eastern coast city is significantly positively correlated with the urban size and the urban growth,which is strengthened by the reforming and opening up.The climate amenity measured by the average minimum temperature in January is significantly correlated with the urban growth,and people tend to migrate to places with warm winter.There is a significant negative correlation between the relief degree of land surface and the urban size.The dummy variable of the resource-based city is significantly negatively correlated with the urban size and the urban growth.A higher administrative level or the supporting policy can strengthen the advantages of the natural endowment,but it is difficult to reverse the disadvantages of the natural endowment.Based on the research,we should respect the law of development,adapt measures to promote urban development in various regions in line with local conditions,optimize the functions of cities at deferent levels,and actively strengthen regional cooperation,promote common prosperity in all regions.

关 键 词：自然禀赋 城市规模 城市增长 气候舒适度 城市行政等级 

分 类 号：F299.2[经济管理—国民经济]