碳市场如何影响火电行业碳减排——碳价格视角  

How carbon market impacts emission reduction in thermal power:From the perspective of carbon price

作　　者：方德斌[1,2] 谢钱姣 FANG Debin;XIE Qianjiao(School of Economics and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;Research Center for Complexity Science and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,武汉430072 [2]武汉大学复杂科学与管理研究中心,武汉430072

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2024年第3期1003-1017,共15页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(19ZDA083);国家自然科学基金(72243010);国家杰出青年科学基金(71725007)。

摘　　要：碳市场是火电行业实现碳减排目标的重要政策工具,碳市场能否影响火电行业碳减排是亟需研究的问题.通过构建发电企业参与电碳市场交易的Stackelberg博弈模型,揭示了碳价格对火电行业碳减排“倒U”型影响的理论机理.基于此,建立考虑碳价格影响的双重差分模型,利用2005–2019年省际面板数据,检验了碳市场对火电行业的碳减排效应.结果表明,碳市场促进了火电行业碳减排,但其影响有滞后效应;碳价与火电行业碳减排的“倒U”型关系具有稳健性.这为碳价驱动的火电行业碳减排提供了经验支撑,为碳市场制度体系的完善提供了重要参考.The carbon market is an important policy tool for the thermal power industry to achieve carbon emission reduction targets.It is an urgent issue to explore whether carbon market can affect carbon emission reduction in thermal power industry.This study constructs a Stackelberg game model for power generation enterprises to participate the trading in the electricity and carbon markets.And it reveals the theoretical mechanism of the“inverted U”effect of carbon price on carbon emission reduction in thermal power industry.Based on this,considering the effect of carbon price,this study employs differences-in-differences to test the carbon reduction effect of carbon market on thermal power industry by using inter-provincial panel data from 2005–2019.The results show that the carbon market promotes carbon emission reduction in the thermal power industry,but its impact has a lag effect.Moreover,it is robust to the“inverted U”type relationship between carbon price and carbon emission reduction in thermal power industry.This study can offer empirical support for carbon price driving carbon emission reduction in the thermal power industry and provide an important reference for the improvement of the carbon market institutional system.

关 键 词：电力市场 碳市场 碳价格 碳减排 火电行业 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济] F224.9