美国战略探析与中美关系前景展望  

Analysis of US Strategy and Outlook for Sino-US Relations

作　　者：王缉思[1] 贾庆国[1] 唐永胜[2] 倪峰[3] 朱锋 谢韬 达巍 李巍[9,10] Wang Jisi;Jia Qingguo;Tang Yongsheng;Ni Feng;Zhu Feng;Xie Tao;Da Wei;Li Wei

机构地区：[1]北京大学国际关系学院 [2]国防大学国家安全学院 [3]中国社会科学院美国研究所 [4]南京大学国际关系学院 [5]中国南海研究协同创新中心 [6]北京外国语大学国际关系学院 [7]清华大学国际关系学系 [8]清华大学战略与国际问题研究中心 [9]中国人民大学国际关系学院 [10]中国人民大学美国研究中心

出　　处：《国际经济评论》2024年第2期9-49,4,共42页International Economic Review

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地复旦大学美国研究中心重大项目“美国国内政治大变局及其对中美战略博奔的影响研究”(项目编号:22JJD810005)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：中美关系是世界上最重要但又最复杂的双边关系。中美角力和博奔的背后有四套相互重叠、互为因果的逻辑,即两国实力消长、意识形态差异、国际环境变化以及国内政治影响。当前,美国以中国为战略竞争的重心、以长期竞争为主要基调的对华全面竞争战略已基本成型。中美战略竞争的关键在于谁能把国内建设与发展之路走得更稳、更实和更好,科技竞争将是两国战略竞争的关键“战役”。政治极化阻碍了美国外交政策的制定和执行,破坏了美国外交政策的一致性。美国政府和社会各界对美国与外部世界的关系尚未形成共识,新的主张仍在激烈博奔,这使得美国对华战略及中美关系很难形成可持续的长期稳定。从短期看,2023年以来的中美官方和民间接触,使得双边关系的发展上限和冲突底线趋向清晰。展望2024年,美国大选等因素仍然会给中美关系制造新的不确定性,但中美关系总体稳定的局面不会出现根本变化。从中长期看,保持大国关系基本稳定符合世界绝大多数国家的根本利益。特别是在全球性安全挑战日趋增加和不确定性显著增强的背景下,中美关系比过去传统的零和博奔更加具有开放性。Sino-US relations are the most important yet most complex bilateral relations in the world.Behind the competition and rivalry between China and the United States lie four sets of overlapping and mutually causal logic:the rise and fall of national strength,ideological differences,changes in the international environment,and domestic political influence.Currently,the United States has largely mapped out a comprehensive competition strategy against China,taking China as the focus of strategic competition and long-term competition as the main tone for that strategy.The key to strategic competition between China and the United States lies in who can better manage domestic affairs and achieve stable,practical and sound domestic development.Technological competition will be the key"battle"of strategic competition between the two countries.Political polarization in the United States hinders the formulation and implementation of its foreign policy,and undermines the consistency of its foreign policy-making.The US government and the US society have not yet reached a consensus on the relationship between the United States and the outside world,and new policy proposals are still fiercely contested,challenging the long-term sustainability and stability of the US strategy toward China and the US-China relations.In the short term,the official and people-to-people exchanges between China and the United States since 2023 have helped clarify their bilateral relationship ceiling and conflict bottom line.Looking forward,this year,factors such as the US'presidential election will continue to create new uncertainties in the Sino-US relations,but the overall stability of the relations will not significantly change.In the medium to long term,maintaining basic stability in major-country relations is in the fundamental interest of the vast majority of countries in the world.Especially in the context of increasing global security challenges and significantly rising uncertainty,the Sino-US relations are more open than the traditional zero-s

关 键 词：美国战略 中美关系 战略竞争 科技竞争 政治极化 

分 类 号：D81[政治法律—国际关系]