黄河流域地区与长江经济带高质量发展的动能转换与策略重点比较  

Comparison of growth driver conversion and strategic priorities for high-quality development between the Yellow River Basin and the Yangtze River Economic Belt

作　　者：孙久文[1] 周孝伦 SUN Jiuwen;ZHOU Xiaolun(School of Applied Economics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学应用经济学院,北京100872

出　　处：《资源科学》2024年第3期435-449,共15页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72050001)。

摘　　要：[目的]通过比较分析黄河流域地区和长江经济带新旧动能转换空间分布差异及其内在驱动机制,为新时代中国新旧动能转换和制定有针对性的区域协调发展政策提供参考。[方法]本文基于2021年地级及以上城市数据,从动力变革、体制改革、结构升级和发展转变等4个方面选取指标建立了新旧动能转换水平度量指标体系,比较分析了黄河流域地区与长江经济带新旧动能转换空间分布差异,并利用地理探测器分析新旧动能转换的主要影响因素。在比较分析的基础上,进一步讨论了两大区域高质量发展的策略重点。[结果](1)黄河流域地区新旧动能转换水平整体低于长江经济带,且内部空间差异显著,呈现“上、下游地区水平高,中游地区水平低”的局面,山东半岛城市群东部和西部以及兰州、西安、太原和郑州等省会城市新旧动能转换水平较高。长江经济带新旧动能转换水平总体上表现出“东高西低”的特征。(2)全局莫兰指数显示黄河流域地区新旧动能转换不存在显著的空间相关性,而长江经济带新旧动能转换存在显著的空间正相关关系。局部莫兰分析显示,黄河流域地区“高-高”集聚主要分布在山东半岛城市群东部城市,“低-低”集聚主要分布在关中平原城市群。长江经济带“高-高”集聚类型占比最大,主要分布在长三角城市群。(3)城市规模、消费能力和人力资本是黄河流域地区新旧动能转换的核心驱动因素,经济发展水平、城市规模、人力资本和对外开放水平对长江经济带新旧动能转换有显著促进作用。分城市群来看,经济发展水平、信息化水平和对外开放水平对黄河流域地区新旧动能转换的促进作用较弱,特别是关中平原、黄河几字弯和兰西等城市群。从东到西水资源量和环境规制对两大区域新旧动能转换水平的影响逐渐加强,尤其是黄河几字弯、�[Objective]Scientific research on the spatial distribution differences and mechanism of old-new growth driver conversion in the Yellow River Basin and Yangtze River Economic Belt is crucial for promoting coordinated regional development and achieving high-quality development in the two areas.[Methods]This study selected indicators from four aspectsgrowth power change,institutional mechanism transformation,structure upgrading,and change of the growth modelto develop a measurement indicator system for the level of old-new growth driver conversion.It compared and analyzed the spatial distribution differences of old-new growth driver conversion in the Yellow River Basin and the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and used geographic detectors to analyze the dominant influencing factors.On the basis of comparative analysis,the strategic focus of high-quality development in the two major areas was discussed.[Results](1)The level of oldnew growth driver conversion in the Yellow River Basin is lower than that in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,and there are significant internal spatial differences,showing a situation of high level in the upstream and downstream areas,and low level in the midstream areas.The eastern and western parts of the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration,as well as provincial capital cities such as Lanzhou,Xi'an,Taiyuan,and Zhengzhou,have higher levels of old-new growth driver conversion.The Yangtze River Economic Belt generally exhibits a characteristic of high in the east and low in the west.(2)The global Moran'I shows no significant spatial correlation in the oldnew growth driver conversion in the Yellow River Basin,while there is a significant positive spatial correlation in the Yangtze River Basin.Local Moran's I analysis shows that the high-high clusters in the Yellow River Economic Belt mainly distribute in the eastern cities of the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration,while the low-low clusters mainly distribute in the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration.The Yangtze River Economic Belt is mainly

关 键 词：新旧动能转换 空间差异 地理探测器 黄河流域 长江经济带 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]