黄河中上游极端降水特征及其对区域气候变化的敏感性  

Characteristics of extreme precipitation and its sensitivity to regional climate change in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：贺山峰 陈超冰 李铮 冯爱青 闫军辉 吴绍洪[4] HE Shanfeng;CHEN Chaobing;LI Zheng;FENG Aiqing;YAN Junhui;WU Shaohonga(School of Geography and Tourism,Qufu Normal University,Rizhao 276800,China;National Climate Center,Beijing 100081,China;College of Geographic Sciences,Xinyang Normal University,Xinyang 464000,China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]曲阜师范大学地理与旅游学院,日照276800 [2]国家气候中心,北京100081 [3]信阳师范大学地理科学学院,信阳464000 [4]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《资源科学》2024年第3期524-537,共14页Resources Science

基　　金：山东省泰山学者青年专家计划项目(tsqn202103065);中国科学院战略性先导专项(XDA19040304);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2022J068)。

摘　　要：[目的]明晰气候变化背景下极端降水事件的区域性特征及变化趋势,对于保障资源环境安全和防灾减灾具有重要意义。[方法]基于1961-2020年气象观测数据,应用线性趋势、M-K检验、小波分析和相关分析等方法,分前期(1961-1990年)和后期(1991-2020年)揭示了黄河中上游极端降水事件的时空分异特征及其对区域气候变化的敏感性。[结果]①除持续干旱日数连续减少,其他极端降水指数均先下降后上升,趋势反转主要发生在1990年代,并且在后期,日降水强度、极端降水量和暴雨日数的上升速率分别为0.43mm/(d·10a)、13.98mm/10a和0.06d/10a,趋势均达到显著水平(p<0.05)。②全时段内研究区西南部较为湿润、河套平原最为干旱,极端强降水呈现东南多、西部少的空间格局。在后期,黄河上游地区暖湿化趋势逐渐增强,中游地区极端强降水的发生频率和强度显著增加。③近60年研究区年均气温上升约1.5℃,升温速率逐渐加快,年降水量先降后升且后期上升趋势达到极显著水平(p<0.01),气候整体上从前期的暖干化向后期的暖湿化转变,尤以黄河上游地区更为明显。极端降水事件变化与区域年均气温表现出较弱的线性对应关系,但对年降水量变化具有较强的敏感性,除持续干早旱日数与年降水量呈弱负相关外,其他极端降水指数与年降水量呈极显著的正相关关系。[结论]极端降水在前期和后期的变化趋势和幅度远大于全时段的变化。1990年代以来,黄河上游暖湿化趋势明显,中游地区极端强降水事件显著增加,未来需重点关注极端降水可能引发的洪涝灾害。[Objective] Clarifying the regional characteristics and variation trends of extreme precipitation events has great significance for ecological security and disaster mitigation under climate change.[Methods]Based on the observation data from 1961-2020,linear trend analysis,M-K test,Morlet wavelet analysis,and correlation analysis were used to analyze the spatiotemporal variation of extreme precipitation events and their sensitivity to climate change from previous period(1961-1990)and recent period(1991-2020)across the upper and middle Yellow River Basin.[Results](1)Most extreme precipitation indices decreased first and then increased around the 1990s,except the continuously decreasing consecutive dry days(CDD).In the recent period,average daily rainfall intensity(SDII),rainfall on very wet days(R95),and rainstorm days(R50)significantly rose at 0.43 mm/(d.10a),13.98 mm/10a,and 0.06 d/10a respectively(p<0.05).(2)In the whole period,the southwestern part of the study region was relatively wet while the Yellow River bend area was the driest,and the extreme heavy precipitation presented more in the southeast and less in the west.In the recent period,the wetting trend in the upper Yellow River Basin gradually increased,and the frequency and intensity of extreme heavy precipitation in the middle Yellow River Basin increased significantly.(3)The average annual temperature in the upper and middle Yellow River Basin rose by about 1.5 C with the acceleration of the warming rate during the past 60 years.The annual precipitation first decreased and then increased,and the upward trend in the recent period reached the extremely significant level(p<0.01).The climate of the study region was transforming from warm-dry to warm-wet,especially in the upper part of the basin.Extreme precipitation was more sensitive to the annual precipitation amount than average temperature and had significant positive correlations,except for CDD.[Conclusion]The trends and magnitudes of variation of extreme precipitation events in the previous period a

关 键 词：极端降水 时空分异特征 气候变化 敏感性 MANN-KENDALL检验 小波分析 黄河中上游 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]