基于盲数理论的边坡非概率可靠度分析  

Non-probabilistic Reliability Analysis of Slopes Based on Blind Number Theory

作　　者：舒苏荀 杨志权 龚文惠[2] 钱家骏 皮康 SHU Suxun;YANG Zhiquan;GONG Wenhui;QIAN Jiajun;PI Kang(School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Wuhan Institute of Technology,Wuhan 430074,China;School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉工程大学土木工程与建筑学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]华中科技大学土木与水利工程学院,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《土木工程与管理学报》2024年第2期18-23,共6页Journal of Civil Engineering and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52008319);武汉工程大学科学基金(K201731)。

摘　　要：针对单一非概率可靠性指标提供信息有限,未涉及边坡滑动面分布等问题,提出一种基于盲数理论的边坡非概率可靠度分析方法。视岩土参数为盲数,将样本数据按升序排列并划分子区间,对不同参数的子区间进行组合,构建对应的椭球模型,求解非概率可靠性指标和盲数可信度,并搜索临界滑动面;统计非概率可靠性指标小于1的盲数可信度作为边坡的失效可能性。算例及实例分析验证了该方法的可行性,结果表明:参数子区间的划分对计算结果有一定影响,建议划分10个子区间;和基于盲数理论的可靠度方法相比,该方法与蒙特卡罗法的计算结果更为接近。该方法可提供边坡非概率可靠性指标和各滑动面随盲数可信度的分布情况,适合在实际工程中应用。Aiming at the problems that the single non-probability reliability index provides limited information and the distribution of slope sliding surface is not involved,a non-probability reliability analysis method for slope based on blind number theory is proposed.Considering the geotechnical parameters as the blind numbers,the sample data is arranged in ascending order and divided into subintervals.The subintervals of different parameters are combined,the corresponding ellipsoid models are constructed,and then the non-probability reliability indexes and their blind number credibility are obtained,and the critical sliding surfaces with the minimum safety factors are searched.The blind number credibility for which the non-probability reliability indexes are less than 1 is counted as the failure possibility of the slope.The feasibility of the proposed method is verified by example and case analysis.The results show that the division of parameter subintervals has a certain influence on the calculation results,and it is recommended to divide 10 subintervals.Compared with the reliability method which is based on blind number theory,the calculation results of proposed method are closer to those of Monte Carlo method.This method can provide the non-probabilistic reliability index of slope and the distribution of each sliding surface with the blind number credibility,which is suitable for application in practical engineering.

关 键 词：边坡 非概率可靠度 盲数理论 盲数可信度 滑动面 

分 类 号：TU43[建筑科学—岩土工程]