熵权法与层次分析法在四川盆地碳酸盐岩气藏开发效果评价中的应用  

Entropy weight method and analytic hierarchy process for evaluating the development effect in carbonate gas reservoirs,Sichuan Basin

作　　者：李龙 郑姝 敖科 李琦 魏子豪 钟萍萍 LI Long;ZHENG Shu;AO Ke;LI Qi;WEI Zihao;ZHONG Pingping(Exploration and Development Research Institute,PetroChina Southwest Oil&Gasfield Company,Chengdu,Sichuan 610041,China;Gepetto Oil Technology Group Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu,Sichuan 610110,China;Well Intervention Company,CNPC Chuanqing Drilling Engineering Company Limited,Chengdu,Sichuan 610051,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油西南油气田公司勘探开发研究院,四川成都610041 [2]捷贝通石油技术集团股份有限公司,四川成都610110 [3]中国石油川庆钻探工程有限公司试修公司,四川成都610051

出　　处：《天然气勘探与开发》2024年第2期53-60,共8页Natural Gas Exploration and Development

基　　金：四川省软科学研究计划项目资助(编号:2021JDR0401)。

摘　　要：在气藏开发过程中,由于多种因素的影响导致不同气藏的开发效果存在差异。目前四川盆地碳酸盐岩气藏开发效果评价,主要是在现有评价标准的基础上对气藏的储量、开发或经济等指标进行评价,综合考虑多方面指标权重的评价方法较少;同时,适用的评价标准也较少,多数是采用通用的行业标准或者数据归一化标准,而评价标准应随评价样本的变化而变化,才能更准确地刻画评价对象。为此,选取磨溪下寒武统龙王庙组气藏(简称“磨溪龙王庙组气藏”)等55个代表性气藏作为样本,开展了四川盆地碳酸盐岩气藏开发效果评价方法研究,研究结果表明:①采用主成分分析方法从众多评价指标中进行筛选,建立适合四川盆地碳酸盐岩气藏开发效果评价的指标体系,具体评价指标有内部收益率、单位完全成本、亿立方米产能投资、净现值、储量动用率、井控储量、标定采收率、采气速度、稳产期末采出程度、稳产年限、递减期递减率等11项;②采用熵权法和层次分析法相结合的数学方法,从定量和定性方面分析了不同指标对开发效果的影响权重,11项开发效果评价指标按指标权重从大到小排序后的前三位为内部收益率、井控储量、净现值,即这3项指标是对气藏开发效果影响最显著的因素;③采用聚类分析法确定各指标评分量化标准,构建适用于四川盆地碳酸盐岩气藏的开发效果评价新方法,并应用于气藏,得到相应的开发效果评价结果,与气藏的实际开发效果较为吻合。新方法的构建与应用,不仅可以评估处于开发中后期阶段的气藏开发效果,也可以通过指标间的对比分析而找到造成气藏开发效果差异的影响因素,可为今后不同气藏开发方案的制定与实施提供技术参考。For various gas reservoirs,the development effect is not all the same due to many factors.Especially for the carbonate gas ones in Sichuan Basin,the evaluation is mainly emphasizing on some reserve,development and economic indexes according to existing assessment standards.There are few tools available for fully taking the weight of multiple indexes into consideration,and also less practical standards.Most are common-used industrial or data normalization standards.Instead,an evaluation benchmark that ought to change with evaluated samples may describe their essential characteristics more accurately.Therefore,taken 55 representative gas reservoirs of the Lower Cambrian Longwangmiao Formation in Moxi area(so-called Longwangmiao gas reservoirs)as examples,some ways for evaluating their development effect were discussed.Results show that(i)evaluation indexes may be screened out via the first way of principal component analysis to establish an index system suitable for this evaluation.A total of 11 indexes are involved,including internal rate of return,full cost per unit,investment in production capacity of one hundred million cubic meters,net present value,producing rate of reserves,well-controlled reserves,calibrated recovery,gas recovery rate,degree of reserve recovery at the end of stable production phase,stable producing life,and reducing rate in the production-decline stage;(ii)integrating entropy weight method with analytic hierarchy process,the second mathematical way may be employed to analyze the weight controls of each index on the development effect quantitatively and qualitatively.The top three on the list are internal rate of return,well-controlled reserves and net present value.In other words,these three ones exert the most remarkable influence on the development effect;and(iii)the third way of cluster analysis is used to define the quantitative criteria for index scoring.As a result,a new methodology for the effect evaluation is created for the carbonate gas reservoirs in the basin.After its applicatio

关 键 词：碳酸盐岩气藏 评价指标体系 效果评价 熵权法 层次分析法 

分 类 号：TE37[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]