湖南省地基北斗卫星导航系统大气可降水量反演及降水分析  

Inversion and precipitation analysis of atmospheric precipitation in the ground-based Beidou system of Hunan Province

作　　者：孙铭涵 庞治国[1,2] 张朋杰 SUN Minghan;PANG Zhiguo;ZHANG Pengjie(China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038;Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources(Flood and Drought Disaster Prevention Center),Beijing 100038)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [2]水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心(水旱灾害防御中心),北京100038

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2024年第4期28-33,共6页China Flood & Drought Management

基　　金：中国卫星导航系统重大专项(GFZX030303020127)。

摘　　要：水汽是影响天气变化的重要因子,灾害天气的发生往往伴随着水汽含量、空间分布的急剧变化。针对目前关于地基北斗卫星导航系统(BDS)反演大气可降水量(PWV)研究相对较少现状,进一步验证BDS PWV的反演精度和PWV与实际降水的关系,利用湖南探空站和邻近的连续运行基准站(CORS)数据,构建湖南本地化大气加权平均温度(Tm)模型,基于此模型进行水汽反演,分析BDS水汽探测的精度,与实际降水结合探究PWV与降水之间的响应关系。结果显示:与探空数据相比,CORS测站解算的BDS PWV均具有较强的相关性,均方根误差(RMSE)和平均绝对误差(MAE)均在4 mm以内,符合水汽监测的要求;PWV与实际降水之间存在明显的联系,降水前6~12 h水汽快速聚集为降水发生提供充足的条件,PWV为60 mm可以作为降水预报的阈值。因此,利用BDS对水汽的持续监测在降水、水旱灾害监测预报中可以发挥重要作用。Water vapor is an important factor affecting weather changes,and the occurrence of disaster weather is often accompanied by sharp changes in water vapor content and spatial distribution.In response to the relatively limited research on the inversion of atmospheric precipitable water vapor(PWV)using the ground-based BeiDou system(BDS),this article further verifies the accuracy of BDS PWV inversion and the relationship between PWV and actual precipitation.A localized atmospheric weighted mean temperature(Tm)model was constructed using data from sounding stations and adjacent stations of the Continuous Operating Reference Station(CORS)in Hunan province.Based on this model,water vapor inversion was carried out to analyze the accuracy of BDS water vapor detection and explore the response relationship between PWV and precipitation by combining with actual precipitation.The results showed that the BDS PWV calculated by CORS stations is provided with a strong correlation in compared with sounding data,with root mean square error and average absolute error of both within 4 mm.The inversion results meet the requirements of water vapor monitoring.There is a clear connection between PWV and actual precipitation.The rapid accumulation of water vapor 6 h to 12 h before precipitation provides sufficient conditions for precipitation to occur,and PWV of 60 mm can be used as a threshold for precipitation forecasting.Therefore,continuous monitoring of water vapor using the BeiDou system can play an important role in monitoring and predicting precipitation,water and drought disasters.

关 键 词：北斗卫星导航系统(BDS) 大气可降水量(PWV) 精度分析 降水分析 大气加权平均温度(Tm) 

分 类 号：P228[天文地球—大地测量学与测量工程] P412[天文地球—测绘科学与技术] TP79[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]