小型水库洪水预报模型研究及应用  

Research and application of flood forecasting model for small reservoirs

作　　者：赵丽平 任明磊[1,2] 刘昌军 王刚[1,2] 唐榕 ZHAO Liping;REN Minglei;LIU Changjun;WANG Gang;TANG Rong(China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038;Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction of the Ministry of Water Resources(Flood and Drought Disaster Prevention Center),Beijing 100038)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [2]水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心(水旱灾害防御中心),北京100038

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2024年第4期77-82,共6页China Flood & Drought Management

基　　金：中国水利水电科学研究院减灾中心青年创新人才推进计划项目;国家重点研发计划课题(2022YFC3006404)。

摘　　要：针对缺资料地区小型水库入库洪水预报难的问题,构建了一种小型水库入库洪水预报模型,其产流模块采用SCS模型,汇流模块采用地貌瞬时单位线,模型参数基于高精度地形地貌数据确定,不依赖于实测流量资料进行模型参数率定,并在安徽省永堌水库进行了应用。采用1818号台风“温比亚”期间永堌水库强降雨洪水进行了验证分析,应用结果表明,构建的模型对该场次洪水过程两次洪峰模拟值与专家反推的入库洪峰较为一致,相对误差分别为3.2%和-11.8%,均在±20%以内,峰现时差均为0,径流深模拟相对误差为-19.2%,确定性系数为0.949,说明建立的小型水库入库洪水预报模型对本次降雨洪水模拟效果较好,对其他小型水库入库洪水预报具有较好的参考和借鉴意义。Aiming at the difficulty of flood forecasting for small reservoirs in data-deficient areas,a flood forecasting model for small reservoirs was constructed.The SCS model was used in the runoff generation module,and the geomorphological instantaneous unit hydrograph(GIUH)was used in the confluence module.The model parameters were determined based on high-precision topographic and geomorphic data,rather than calibration with the measured flow data.The constructed model was verified by the heavy rainfall flood encountered by Yonggu Reservoir in Anhui province during the“Rumbia”typhoon(International number:1818).The application results show that the simulated values of the two flood peaks by the model were consistent with the values deduced by experts.The relative errors were 3.2%and-11.8%respectively,both within 20%,and the peak time difference was 0.The relative error of runoff depth simulation is-19.2%,and the deterministic coefficient is 0.949.Hence,the small-scale reservoir flood forecasting model established in this paper has a good performance,and can give a good reference for flood forecasting of other small reservoirs.

关 键 词：小型水库 入库洪水预报 SCS产流模型 地貌瞬时单位线 永堌水库 安徽省 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV697.1