危化品事故多层级链式推演模型及案例分析  

Multi-level disaster chain deduction analysis and case application of hazardous chemical accidents

作　　者：何青伦 姜文宇 王飞 李鑫 王智 HE Qinglun;JIANG Wenyu;WANG Fei;LI Xin;WANG Zhi(Department of Engineering Physics,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Institute of Safety Science and Technology,Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School,Shenzhen Guangdong 518000,China;Foshan Urban Safety Research Center,Foshan Guangdong 528000,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学工程物理系,北京100084 [2]清华大学深圳国际研究生院安全科学与技术研究所,广东深圳518000 [3]佛山市城市安全研究中心,广东佛山528000

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2024年第3期162-170,共9页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：广东省重点研发项目(2019B111104001);深圳市学科布局项目(JCYJ20180508152055235)。

摘　　要：为提升危化品企业的风险防控能力,支撑事故发生后迅速地进行应急决策研判,基于灾害链理论,从热辐射、毒气、超压3类危化品事故关键致灾因子出发,提出灾害链多层级链式推演模型。采用流体扩散模型和Probit模型,分别构建危化品容器起火概率及顺序预测算法和危化品爆炸点火时刻估计算法,实现对危化品事故中燃烧和爆炸演化过程的定量计算分析。并以广东省某树脂生产厂为研究案例,建立1条由危化品泄漏事故引发的灾害链,推演分析灾害链各节点的演化时间和发生概率。分析结果表明:灾害链推演模型能有效定量化分析实际危化品厂区事故的演化过程、预测事故节点发生概率及时间,并在一定程度上帮助检验危化品厂区布局安全。To enhance the risk prevention and control capabilities of hazardous chemical factories and support emergency decision-making in case of accidents,a multi-level deduction model for the disaster chain was proposed.Furthermore,three categories of key factors(such as thermal radiation,toxic gases,and overpressure)affecting hazardous chemical accidents were considered in the model.Based on the fluid diffusion model and Probit model,the fire probability and sequence simulation algorithm of hazardous chemicals container and the ignition time estimation algorithm of hazardous chemicals explosion were proposed,respectively.Then,the quantitative analysis of the combustion and explosion evolution process in hazardous chemical accidents was performed.For the case of a resin chemical production company in Guangdong province,a disaster chain caused by hazardous chemical leakage accidents was developed to analyze the evolution time and probability of each node.The results indicated that the proposed deduction model can effectively analyze the evolution process of the actual hazardous chemical disaster chain,predict the probability and time of accident nodes,and provide fundamental knowledge for the safety layout of hazardous chemical plants.

关 键 词：危化品事故 灾害链 链式推演 蒙特卡罗 PROBIT模型 

分 类 号：X928.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学]