预案视角下城市防汛应急组织间网络鲁棒性评价  

Networks robustness evaluation of urban flood emergency organizations from perspective of emergency plans

作　　者：刘心男 薛婷婷 纪颖波 LIU Xinnan;XUE Tingting;JI Yingbo(North China University of Technology,School of Civil Engineering,Beijing 100144,China)

机构地区：[1]北方工业大学土木工程学院,北京100144

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2024年第3期216-221,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3002300);北京市科协青年人才托举工程(BYESS2023324);北方工业大学有组织科研项目(110051360023XN278-02)。

摘　　要：为解决城市防汛应急预案在制订过程中,相关组织应急协同能力难以量化的问题,提出考虑级联失效的城市防汛应急组织间网络鲁棒性评价方法。首先,以北京、上海与深圳市防汛应急预案为研究对象,构建组织间网络,并提出网络攻击策略与鲁棒性评价指标;其次,计算网络特征统计参数,并分析网络拓扑特性;然后,以自然连通度为鲁棒性指标,评价城市防汛应急组织间网络在遭受节点单次攻击与连续攻击下的鲁棒性;最后,对比不同攻击下网络的鲁棒性强弱并找出对鲁棒性影响较大的关键组织。结果表明:北京、上海与深圳市防汛应急预组织间网络具有无标度特性和小世界特性;节点单次攻击时,相较于非级联失效情形,组织间网络在级联失效情况下鲁棒性较弱,造成级联失效节点数较大的组织为影响网络鲁棒性的关键组织;连续攻击时,组织间网络在蓄意攻击情形下鲁棒性较弱,度值较大的组织为影响网络鲁棒性的关键组织。In order to address the difficulty to quantifying the emergency coordination ability of related organizations during the formation of urban flood emergency plans,a method to evaluate the robustness of inter-organizational networks for urban flood emergency response considering cascading failure was proposed.First,the inter-organizational networks for flood control emergency plans in Beijing,Shanghai and Shenzhen were established,and attack strategies and evaluation indexes of network robustness were proposed.Secondly,network characteristic statistical parameters are computed,and the network topology properties were analyzed.Then,the natural connectivity was selected as the robustness indicator to evaluate the network robustness under node single-attack strategy and continuous attack strategy.Finally,the robustness of networks under different attacks was compared,and the key organizations that have a great influence on robustness were found.The results indicate that inter-organizational networks of urban flood control emergency plans in Beijing,Shanghai,and Shenzhen have small-world and scale-free characteristics.Under single attacks of nodes,compared with the case of non-cascading failures,the robustness of inter-organizational networks is weaker considering cascading failures.Organizations with a large number of failure nodes are key to making the networks robust.Under continuous attacks,networks are strongly robust to random attacks,but weakly robust to deliberate attacks,where organizations with high degree values are key to making networks robust.

关 键 词：城市防汛 应急预案 组织间网络 鲁棒性 级联失效 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]