基于模糊综合评价法的铁路行车组织安全水平评价探讨  

Safety Level Evaluation of Train Operation Organization Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

作　　者：全轲 QUAN Ke(Qiaosi Station,China Railway Shanghai Group Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国铁路上海局集团有限公司乔司站,浙江杭州310000

出　　处：《铁道经济研究》2024年第2期58-63,共6页Railway Economics Research

基　　金：中国铁路上海局集团有限公司科研计划课题(2023032)。

摘　　要：为提高铁路行车组织安全管理水平,有效预防行车事故的发生,建立基于模糊综合评价法的铁路行车组织安全水平评价。以事故系统“4 M”要素构建行车组织安全评价指标体系,通过调研组建专家小组,建立评价因素集和评语集;运用AHP确定各指标权重,修正一致性检验不合格的判断矩阵;根据专家小组评价结果建立隶属度矩阵,通过模糊综合评价法得出综合评价结果。实证表明,该综合评价结果能够研判车站行车组织安全风险,在此基础上提出相应的措施,有利于降低行车组织安全风险隐患,提升铁路行车组织安全水平。In order to improve the safety management of train operation organization and effectively prevent train accidents,an evaluation method for train operation organization safety level is established based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The safety evaluation index system for train operation organization based on the 4M elements of the accident system is constructed and the evaluation factor set and evaluation comment set are established by the expert group through survey;AHP is used to determine the weights of each indicator and the judgment matrix failed the consistency test is rectified;The membership matrix based on the evalua⁃tion results of the expert group is built and the comprehensive evaluation results are obtained through the fuzzy comprehensive evalua⁃tion method.Empirical evidence shows that the comprehensive evaluation results can assess the safety risks of train operation organiza⁃tion in the stations.Measures are then proposed to reduce safety risks of and improve the safety of train operation organization.

关 键 词：铁路运输 行车组织 模糊综合评价法 影响因素 安全水平 指标体系 判断矩阵 措施 

分 类 号：U298[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]