人口老龄化对消费的影响——基于经济产出视角的分析  

The Impact of Population Ageing on Consumption from the Angle of Economic Output

作　　者：李姗姗[1] 丁玉凤 段明昊 LI Shanshan;DING Yufeng;DUAN Minghao(Business School,Liaoning University,Shenyang 110136,Liaoning Province,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学商学院,辽宁沈阳110136

出　　处：《老龄科学研究》2024年第2期18-29,共12页Scientific Research on Aging

基　　金：辽宁省社会科学规划基金重点项目“人口老龄化对辽宁省居民消费的影响研究”(L16ARK001)。

摘　　要：从经济产出视角分析人口老龄化对消费的影响。通过运用经济增长模型进行理论分析可知:人口老龄化带来的人力资本投资增加,以及老年人资本存量增加,都会促进消费从而弱化老年人口比重增加可能导致的人均消费下降问题。基于上述理论分析构建实证模型,利用中国2001—2021年全国数据进行实证检验。结果发现:中国老年人口比重对消费的影响仍处于正向促进阶段;少儿教育投资及健康投资的增加通过对人力资本的提升对消费产生正向影响;我国老年人的资本积累并未形成社会资本密集化,没有对消费起到促进作用。基于研究结论和我国的具体情况,提出了相应的政策建议。From the perspective of economic output,this article analyzed the effects of population ageing on consumption.A theoretical analysis based on the economic growth model shows that the increase in human capital investment and capital stock of older people will promote consumption,thereby weakening the problem of per capita consumption decline that may be caused by the increase in the proportion of older adults.At the same time,an empirical model was constructed and then tested using the national data of China from 2001 to 2021.It demonstrates that the impact of the proportion of the elderly population on consumption in China is still in a positive promoting stage.Besides,the increase in the investment in children's education and health has a positive impact on consumption by improving human capital.Furthermore,the capital accumulation by Chinese seniors has not formed a social capital intensity and has not yet played a promoting role in consumption.On the basis of the above conclusions and the specific situation of China,corresponding policy suggestions were put forward.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 消费影响 经济产出 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]