中国“一带一路”倡议的包容性开放效应——基于“一带一路”沿线国家HDI指数的经验分析  

Inclusive opening effect of China’s“Belt and Road”Initiative:Based on empirical analysis of HDI of countries along the“Belt and Road”

作　　者：戴翔[1] 曾令涵 Dai Xiang;Zeng Linghan(Joint Research Institute,Nanjing Audit University,Nanjing 211815,Jiangsu,China)

机构地区：[1]南京审计大学联合研究院,江苏南京211815

出　　处：《地理科学》2024年第4期651-659,共9页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大招标项目(23&ZD036);江苏省科研与实践创新计划项目(KYCX22_2091);安徽省哲学社会科学项目(AHSKY2021D51)资助。

摘　　要：与以往发达国家主导和推动的经济全球化不同,中国“一带一路”倡议由于秉持着人类命运共同体先进理念,不仅为更多发展中国家融入全球价值链分工提供了更多机会,而且力图改善其分工地位,从而推动经济全球化朝着更加具有包容性开放的方向发展,让开放发展的成果能够更多地惠及世界各国尤其是其他发展中国家。在理论分析基础上,以人类发展指数(HDI)作为包容性开放效应的表征变量,基于2010—2019年ADBMRIO数据库中60个国家的经验数据,采用双重差分模型进行实证分析及稳健性检验,分析“一带一路”倡议的包容性开放效应。结果表明,“一带一路”倡议显著促进了沿线国家HDI提升,表现出较好的包容性开放特征,并且上述效应主要通过提升沿线国家全球价值链参与度和改善分工地位2个作用机制产生,理论假说得到了较好的逻辑一致性计量检验结果。据此可见,秉持人类命运共同体先进理念的“一带一路”倡议,不仅有着坚实的理论基础,而且实践经验证明中国已经走在推动包容性开放道路上,包容性开放效应在“一带一路”沿线国家初步显现。Different from the economic globalization,led and promoted by developed countries in the past,China’s“Belt and Road”Initiative,adhering to the advanced concept of a community with a shared future for mankind,not only provides more opportunities for more developing countries to integrate into the global value chain division of labor,but also strives to improve its division of labor.Compared with existing literature,the marginal contribution of this article may lie in.First,from a research perspective,this article evaluates the practical effects of the“Belt and Road”Initiative from the specific perspective of“inclusive openness”.Second,in terms of indicators of selection,this article selects the Human Development Index(HDI)as an indicator to measure the possible inclusive opening effect of the“Belt and Road”Initiative in the countries along the route at the comprehensive and sub-index levels.Third,in terms of mechanism analysis,this article strives to discuss the unique mechanism and role of the“Belt and Road”Initiative in promoting the participation of countries along the route in the international division of labor,and then clarifies its mechanisms for inclusive openness.Fourth,in terms of research methods,considering that the countries along the route participate in the“Belt and Road”Initiative at different times,this article adopts the multi-period double difference method to improve the accuracy of policy processing time points.On the basis of theoretical analysis,using HDI as a characterization variable of the inclusive opening effect,based on the empirical data of 60 countries in the ADBMRIO database from 2010 to 2019,the empirical analysis of the double difference model and various robustness.The test results show that the“Belt and Road”Initiative has indeed significantly promoted the HDI of the countries along the route,showing a relatively inclusive opening feature.And the above-mentioned effects are mainly through the two mechanisms of increasing the participation of countri

关 键 词：“一带一路”倡议 包容性开放 人类发展指数(HDI) 双重差分模型 

分 类 号：F129.9[经济管理—世界经济]