我国人口负增长的趋势、特征与阶段--基于人口变动规律的模拟预测  

The Trend,Characteristics and Stages of China's Negative Population Growth:A Simulation Prediction Based on the Laws of Population Change

作　　者：周长洪 帅友良 ZHOU Changhong;SHUAI Youliang(School of Sociology and Population Studies,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Nanjing 210023,China;School of Economics,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]南京邮电大学社会与人口学院,江苏南京210023 [2]南京邮电大学经济学院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《人口与社会》2024年第2期15-24,共10页Population and Society

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“人口高质量发展视角下积极应对老龄化问题研究”(23&ZD186);江苏省教育科学规划战略性与政策性重大课题“江苏2024—2035年学龄人口变动与教育资源动态配置研究”(A/2023/c10)。

摘　　要：2022年我国人口首次出现负增长,标志着人口趋势发生改变:漫长的人口增长期结束和新的人口负增长期开始。这种人口负增长是内生性的,是由人口内在规律驱动的长期变动。根据人口惯性变动规律和人口长波变动形态,设定未来生育率变动的三种方案,即假设生育率将在2050年、2080年、2100年回升到更替水平及以上,对我国人口总量变动情况进行模拟预测。结果表明:我国人口总量呈负增长趋势,并且具有“缓—急—缓”特征。人口负增长过程由两个阶段构成:第一阶段是低生育率和人口负增长并存期,持续时间由经济社会发展环境决定;第二阶段是惯性减少期,持续时间由人口年龄结构决定。低生育率回升到更替水平的时间越晚,人口总量降幅越大,老龄化程度越深。预测结果还表明,随着生育率逐渐回升到更替水平及以上,我国人口年龄结构将趋于正常。因此,面对我国人口数量已经进入下降过程的现实,尽可能促使生育率早日回升到更替水平对人口总量保持稳定和人口结构趋于正常都是十分必要和有益的。In 2022,China experienced a negative population growth for the first time,marking a change in population trend:the end of a long period of population growth and the beginning of a period of negative population growth.This kind of negative population growth is endogenous,which is a long-term change driven by the internal law of population.According to the law of inertia change and the law of long-wave change of population,three scenarios of fertility change are set,that is,the fertility rate will rise back to the replacement level or above in 2050,2080 and 2100,and the total population change of China is simulated and predicted.The results show that the total population of China presents a negative growth trend,with the characteristics of“slow-rapid-slow”.The process of negative population growth consists of two stages:the first stage is the coexistence period of low fertility and negative population growth,the duration of which is determined by the economic and social development environment;The second stage is the period of inertia reduction,the duration of which is determined by the age structure of the population.The later the low fertility rate returns to replacement level,the greater the population decline,the deeper degree of aging.The projections also suggest that if the fertility rate rises to replacement level or above,the age structure of the population will normalize.Therefore,facing the reality that China's population has entered a long decline process,it is necessary and beneficial to promote the fertility rate to rise to the replacement level as soon as possible to keep the total population stable and the population structure going to normal.

关 键 词：低生育率 人口负增长 人口惯性负增长 人口模拟预测 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理]