科技创新视角下人口负增长对经济增长的影响研究--基于OECD面板数据分析  

A Research on the Impact of Negative Population Growth on Economic Growth from the Perspective of Technological Innovation:An Analysis Based on OECD Panel Data

作　　者：陈燕儿 周建芳[1,2] 赵锐 CHEN Yaner;ZHOU Jianfang;ZHAO Rui(Population Research Institute,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Nanjing 210042,China;Jiangsu High-Quality Development Comprehensive Evaluation Research Base,Nanjing 210042,China;School of Sociology and Population,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]南京邮电大学人口研究院,江苏南京210042 [2]江苏高质量发展综合评估研究基地,江苏南京210042 [3]南京邮电大学社会与人口学院,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《人口与社会》2024年第2期25-39,共15页Population and Society

基　　金：国家社科基金面上项目“积极老龄化视角下低龄老年人时间利用与福祉提升研究”(22BRK014)。

摘　　要：人口负增长对经济增长的影响日益引起关注。使用正在经历或已经历过人口负增长的24个OECD成员国1965—2021年的面板数据,分析人口负增长对经济增长的影响。结果发现,整体人口数量下降与经济增长之间的相关性不显著,但劳动年龄人口的减少显著抑制经济增长;科技创新具有调节效应,可以有效减弱人口负增长对经济增长的负向影响;短期型人口负增长情况下,人口数量减少与经济增长关联性不大,但长期型的人口数量减少将对经济增长造成显著压力;老龄化速度快的国家人口负增长对经济增长的负向影响更显著。建议通过提高劳动力素质、促进科技创新的方式应对人口负增长、劳动力数量不足的难题,并从“生育”“养育”两方面着手减缓老龄化的冲击,多举并用,缓解人口负增长给经济发展带来的不利影响。The impact of negative population growth on economic growth has attracted increasing attention.Panel data from 24 OECD member countries that have experienced or are experiencing population decline from 1965 to 2021 are utilized to analyze the effect of population decline on economic growth.The results find that the correlation between overall population decline and economic growth is not significant,but the reduction of the working-age population will significantly inhibit economic growth;technological innovation has a regulating effect and can effectively weaken the negative impact of negative population growth on economic growth.In the case of short-term negative population growth,population reduction has little correlation with economic growth,but long-term population reduction will cause pressure on economic growth.Moreover,countries with faster aging populations experience more pronounced adverse effects of population decline on economic growth.It is suggested to solve the problem of negative population growth and insufficient labor force by improving the quality of labor force and promoting scientific and technological innovation,and to mitigate the impact of aging population from the two aspects of“fertility”and“nursing”,so as to alleviate the adverse impact of negative population growth on economic development.

关 键 词：人口负增长 劳动年龄人口 人口老龄化 经济增长 劳动力素质 科技创新 

分 类 号：C921[社会学—人口学] C924