2024年3月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估  

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China,March 2024

作　　者：朱可怡 李昱[2] 陈操[3] 王大燕[3] 彭质斌[2] 李超[1] 靳淼[3] 张倩[4] 施国庆[1] 涂文校[1] 向妮娟[1] Zhu Keyi;Li Yu;Chen Cao;Wang Dayan;Peng Zhibin;Li Chao;Jin Miao;Zhang Qian;Shi Guoqing;Tu Wenxiao;Xiang Nijuan(National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,Public Health Emergency Center,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,Division of Infectious Disease,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 102206,China;National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases,National Immunization Program,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 100050,China)

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心应急中心,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京102206 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心传染病处,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京102206 [3]中国疾病预防控制中心病毒病预防控制所,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京102206 [4]中国疾病预防控制中心免疫规划中心,传染病溯源预警与智能决策全国重点实验室,北京100050

出　　处：《疾病监测》2024年第3期261-263,共3页Disease Surveillance

摘　　要：目的 评估2024年3月在我国(不含香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾省,下同)发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法 根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果 预计2024年3月突发公共卫生事件数可能较2月有所上升,以传染病类事件为主。我国境内新型冠状病毒JN.1变异株疫情仍呈上升趋势,对医疗服务影响依然较小,预计3月疫情可能下降。流行性感冒疫情呈持续下降趋势,学校开学可能引起学校及托幼机构聚集性疫情。百日咳疫情仍处于较高水平。学校诺如病毒肠炎疫情可能上升。结论 对新型冠状病毒感染予以特别关注,对流行性感冒、百日咳、诺如病毒肠炎予以一般关注。Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China(except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan province,the same below)in March 2024.Methods Based on various data and departmental notification information on domestic and foreign public health emergencies reports and surveillance of key infectious diseases,the expert consultation method was used and experts from provincial(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government)centers for disease control and prevention were invited to participate in the assessment by video conference.Results It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies in March 2024 would be higher than that in February 2024.The main public health emergencies would be infectious diseases.The epidemic of JN.1 variant of COVID-19 in China is expected to continue to rise,but the impact on medical services is still at a low level,with a projected decrease in COVID-19 incidence in March.Influenza epidemics are on the decline,and the start of the new semester may lead to clustered outbreaks in schools and nursery.The prevalence of pertussis might remain high.Viral diarrhea outbreaks in schools caused by norovirus might increase.Conclusion Special attention should be paid to COVID-19,and general attention should be paid to influenza,pertussis and norovirus infection.

关 键 词：突发公共卫生事件 传染病疫情 风险评估 

分 类 号：R211[医药卫生—中医学] R51