气候变化情景下北江流域骤发干旱特征变化预测  

Projected Changes in Flash Drought Characteristics in the Beijiang River Basin under Climate Change Scenarios

作　　者：雷勇 王赛赛 陈蓓 武传号 LEI Yong;WANG Saisai;CHEN Bei;WU Chuanhao(The Pearl River Water Conservancy Research Institute,The Pearl River Water Resources Commission,Guangzhou 510640,China;School of Environment,Jinan University,Guangzhou 511443,China;College of Life Science and Technology,Jinan University,Guangzhou 510632,China;The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]珠江水利委员会珠江水利科学研究院,广东广州510640 [2]暨南大学环境学院,广东广州511443 [3]暨南大学生命科学技术学院,广东广州510632 [4]河海大学水灾害防御全国重点实验室,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水文》2024年第2期96-102,共7页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52279016,51909106)。

摘　　要：以北江流域为研究对象,利用VIC(Variable Infiltration Capacity)模型与CMIP5全球气候模式耦合构建了流域水循环模型,基于模型输出的蒸发和潜在蒸发数据,构建基于SESR指数的骤发干旱(简称骤旱)识别方法,评估2021—2050年三种排放情景下(RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5)骤旱特征(频次、历时、强度)相对于基准期(1971—2000)的变化及不确定性。结果表明,在RCP情景下:(1)流域呈持续增暖趋势,且排放情景越高升温幅度越大,降水、蒸发和潜在蒸发呈总体呈减小趋势,但潜在蒸发减小幅度小于蒸发;(2)骤旱频次在流域西部(东部)减少(增加),且增幅随排放情景上升而增大(<80%),流域东北部和南部预计会遭遇强度更高、历时更长的骤旱过程;(3)不同骤旱特征预测的不确定性差异较大,且均呈现出较强的空间异质性。Taking the Beijiang River basin(BRB)as the study area,a water cycle model was constructed by coupling the Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC)model with the CMIP5 global climate models.Based on the evaporation and potential evaporation simulations,the flash drought(FD)events in BRB based on the SESR(Standardized Evolutionary Stress Ratio)were identified.Besides,the project changes in FD characteristics(frequency,duration,and intensity)and uncertainties during 2021-2050 under three RCP scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP8.5)were evaluated.The results indicate that BRB shows a continuous warming trend,especially under the higher RCP scenarios.Precipitation,evaporation,and potential evaporation are projected to show an overall decreasing trend,but the decrease in potential evaporation is smaller than that of evaporation.Compared with the baseline(1971-2000),the FD frequency in 2021-2050 is generally characterized by a spatial distribution of decreasing in the west and increasing in the east,and the increase in frequency tends to be larger under the higher RCP scenarios(<80%).The northeastern and southern regions of BRB are expected to encounter FD events with higher intensity and longer duration.The projection uncertainty of different FD characteristics varies greatly,and all exhibit strong spatial heterogeneity.

关 键 词：骤旱 VIC模型 气候模式 情景预测 不确定性 

分 类 号：P339[天文地球—水文科学]