近50年滇池流域汛期降水时空演变特征分析  

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of Flood Season Precipitation in Dianchi Lake Basin in the Past 50 Years

作　　者：邓丽仙[1] 杨帆[2] 杨洋 李姣 赵兰兰[5] 胡成龙 李长江[1] DENG Lixian;YANG Fan;YANG Yang;LI Jiao;ZHAO Lanlan;HU Chenglong;LI Changjiang(Kunming Branch of Yunnan hydrology and Water Resources Bureau,Kunming 650106,China;Yunnan Provincial Bureau of hydrology and water resources,Kunming 650106,China;Dehong Branch of Yunnan hydrology and Water Resources Bureau,Mangshi 678400,China;Honghe Branch of Yunnan Provincial Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau,Honghe 661199,China;Information Center,Ministry of Water Resources,Beijing 100053,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省水文水资源局昆明分局,云南昆明650106 [2]云南省水文水资源局,云南昆明650106 [3]云南省水文水资源局德宏分局,云南芒市678400 [4]云南省水文水资源局红河分局,云南红河661199 [5]水利部信息中心,北京100053

出　　处：《水文》2024年第2期113-120,127,共9页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52179011)。

摘　　要：以滇池流域1970—2020年汛期(5—10月)降水量资料为依据,利用地理信息技术,采用Mann-Kendall检验法、小波分析等方法,分析近50年来滇池流域汛期降水年际变化的趋势性、周期性以及集中度、集中期、降水中心和旱涝发生频率等演变特征。结果表明:(1)近50年来,滇池流域汛期降水总体呈减少趋势,中部地区降水呈增加趋势,盘龙江上游的松华坝水库以上区域及南部地区降水呈减少趋势;(2)汛期降水年际变化存在31 a的主周期,中部主城区降水集中度高于南部地区;(3)汛期降水的中心整体呈现向东部、南部方向偏移的态势,且移动趋势显著;(4)滇池流域旱涝频发,尤其盘龙江中段昆明主城区为旱涝多发区。该成果对滇池流域水旱灾害防御及水资源管理具有参考意义。Based on the precipitation of the Dianchi Lake Basin during the flood season(May-October)from 1970 to 2020,this paper used geographic information technology,Mann-Kendall rank test,wavelet analysis and other methods to analyze the precipitation in the Dianchi Lake Basin during the flood season in the past 50 years,focusing on the trend,periodicity and concentration of interannual changes,concentration period,precipitation center and frequency of drought and flood evolution.The results show that,(1)in the past 50 years,the overall trend of flood precipitation is decreasing,with an increase in precipitation in the central region and a decrease in precipitation in the upper reaches of the Panlong River above the Songhua Dam Reservoir and the southern region;(2)There is a 31-year main cycle of interannual variation in flood precipitation,with a higher concentration of precipitation in the central main city than in the southern region;(3)The center of precipitation in the flood season generally shifts to the east and south,and the moving trend is significant;(4)Droughts and floods are frequent in the Dianchi basin,especially in the upper and middle reaches of the Panlong River,which is a drought and flood prone area.This study could provide references to the flood and drought disaster prevention and water resources management in Dianchi Lake Basin.

关 键 词：滇池流域 汛期降水 集中度 集中期 降水中心 旱涝特征 

分 类 号：P33[天文地球—水文科学] TV11[水利工程—水文学及水资源]