基于PLUS—InVEST模型的武烈河流域碳储量的动态变化及预测  

Dynamic changes and prediction of carbon storage in the Wulie River Basin based on PLUS—InVEST model

作　　者：王冶 杨越[1,2] 李薇 薛忠财 林秋燕 许墨含 WANG Ye;YANG Yue;LI Wei;XUE Zhong-cai;LIN Qiu-yan;XU Mo-han(Colloge of Resources and Environmental Sciences,Hebei Normal University for Nationalities,Chengde 067000,China;Key Laboratory of Mountain Geological Environment of Hebei Province,Chengde 067000,China;Chengde NO.1 Middle School,Chengde 067000,China)

机构地区：[1]河北民族师范学院资源与环境科学学院,河北承德067000 [2]河北省山区地质环境重点实验室,河北承德067000 [3]河北承德第一中学,河北承德067000

出　　处：《环境生态学》2024年第4期10-18,共9页Environmental Ecology

基　　金：河北省大学生科技创新能力培育专项项目(22E50273D);河北省社会科学发展研究课题(20230302029);河北省高等学校科学技术研究项目(BJK2023105);承德市科技计划项目(202205B090)资助。

摘　　要：武烈河流域是京津冀生态屏障区的重要组成部分,探究其土地利用/覆盖变化对碳储量时空变化的影响有利于提升该区的碳汇贡献。本研究运用PLUS—InVEST模型评估武烈河流域2000—2020年及2030年3种情景(自然发展情景、经济发展情景和生态保护情景)的碳储量动态变化,并探讨土地利用/覆盖变化对碳储量的影响。研究结果如下:2000—2020年,耕地和草地减少,建筑用地和未利用地增加,林地和水域变化不大;2000、2010和2020年的碳储量分别为39.13×10^(6)t、38.82×10^(6)t和38.60×10^(6)t,呈现逐年递减的变化趋势,与2020年相比,2030年自然发展情景下,土地利用/覆盖变化不显著,导致总体碳储量变化较小;经济发展情景下,林地和草地向其他地类型的转化,导致碳储量减少5.52%;生态保护情景下,耕地、建筑用地向林地、草地的转化,使碳储量增加3.40%。生态保护情景更能有效地提升武烈河流域碳储量,研究结果可为优化武烈河流域的土地利用/覆盖格局和促进碳储存生态服务的可持续发展提供科学依据。The Wulie River Basin is an essential component of the ecological barrier region of Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei.Investigating the influence of its land use changes on the spatiotemporal variations of carbon storage can enhance the carbon sequestration contribution in this region.This study employed the PLUS—InVEST model to assess the dynamic changes in carbon storage in the Wulie River Basin from 2000 to 2020 and under three scenarios in 2030(natural development scenario,economic development scenario,and ecological protection scenario).The study's results are as follows:From 2000 to 2020,cropland and grassland decreased,while construction land and unused land increased;The changes in forested areas and water bodies were not significant.The carbon storage in 2000,2010,and 2020 was 39.13×10^(6)t,38.82×10^(6)t,and 38.60×10^(6)t,respectively,showing a decreasing trend over the years.Compared to 2020,the land use changes in the natural development scenario in 2030 were not significant,leading to a relatively small overall change in carbon storage.Under the economic development scenario,the transformation of forested and grassland areas into other land use types resulted in a 5.52%reduction in carbon storage.In contrast,the ecological protection scenario,where cropland and construction land were converted into forest and grassland,led to a 3.40%increase in carbon storage.The ecological protection scenario is more effective in enhancing the carbon storage in the Wulie River Basin.The study's findings can provide a scientific basis for optimizing the land use pattern in the Wulie River Basin and promoting the sustainable development of carbon storage ecological services.

关 键 词：土地利用/覆盖变化 碳储量 PLUS模型 InVEST模型 多情景模拟 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]